I don't disagree with you, belted. Your analysis there is correct. I was just attempting to clarify PvE's position on the price of gold. I don't think it's a useful one for trading, for a variety of reasons, but the main one is simple.

He does not publish his current 'fair value' anywhere that I know of, which would make it largely impossible for an investor to trade on it, unless one took the time to re-create his model. It may be that gold has been at or below his 'fair value' many times in the past couple of years, but he certainly didn't scream it from the rooftops if and when it was.

I should also point out that he did say that he would not be a seller of gold at these prices - just not a buyer. Comments he's made in the past regarding someone who has no position in gold was to buy some on the dips. I'm not sure if he meant if it dipped into his 'fair value' or not. Probably so.