From SirChartsalot.com:
"Fed chief Bernanke's warning to Congress on June 2nd , that the central bank would limit its monetization of Treasury debt to $300-billion this summer, was the key defining turning point, where the gold market topped-out at $975 /oz, before retreating to as low as $905 /oz this week. Yet when the Fed actually lived-up to its warning on June 24th , the gold market counter-intuitively bottomed-out and rebounded to as high as $942 /oz today. Right in front of one's nose was the old adage, sell on the rumor and buy on the fact, which is about as smart as one needs to be to explain the gold market?s behavior this month. News that the ECB is pumping 442-billion euros of fresh cash into the banking system, for up to one-year, should have sent the price of gold soaring to $975 /oz or higher, but instead, gains were limited to $12 /oz."
At the same time gold shares bottomed early last week and then rallied buoyed by massive money injections by European central banks, dealing with future waves of bank bailouts. The ECB said lenders in the Eurozone may lose a further $283-billion by the end of next year. While pressures on the major global banks have stabilized over the past few months, their balance sheets remain impaired. Rising household and corporate distress, and continuing falls in property prices, raise the possibility of further asset impairment.?
As I expressed on national television, my basic view is that as investors, with the exception of mining and natural resource shares, we should be out of the stock market and in the physical metals. If you're a trader with your hand on the trigger, it doesn't make any difference. The rally in the stock market is built on a house of cards and, yes, we could see the Dow Industrials at 10,300 (a 50% retracement of the decline) in the months ahead, but we could also see it plunge to new bear market lows. There is a risk in the next several years (not that many) the Dow Industrials will ultimately lose 90% of its value much as it did during the Great Depression. That would put it back to 1460, just above the 1982 lows. I have become less and less inclined to hold 'paper'. As the expression goes, "if it falls on your foot and hurts, you want to own it". At the same time I am technician and trader, so if I'm wrong I cannot be stubborn. We will know in the fullness of time so if I'm wrong I cannot be stubborn.
Ed Note - Mark also thinks gold shares may have bottomed last week and we could be closer to an upside breakout in gold than anyone thinks.
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