The Gold Report recently caught up with newsletter writer and analyst Lawrence Roulston of Resource Opportunities, who's been travelling to learn more about the state of mining worldwide.

In this exclusive interview, Roulston provides his thoughts on the outlook for the economy and what factors impact gold and other metal markets. "As the Western world gets back on track," says Roulston, "commodity prices will continue higher."

The Gold Report: Lawrence, you have just returned from trips to Dubai, Hong Kong and Europe. What does the rest of the world think of the health of the U.S. and European economies?

Lawrence Roulston: It is striking how different the outlooks are in different parts of the world. In North America, most people are totally focused on the U.S. economy, which is not looking that promising in the near term. Therefore, investors are quite gloomy. Europe is also not very upbeat. But, in Europe, they are more pragmatic and they tend to look a little further into the future.

As a result, many European investors see this down period as a buying opportunity. Parts of Asia were hit hard by the slowdown, but there is still a lot of growth in China and India. China reacted quickly with an effective stimulus plan that is focused on building infrastructure. Growth there is forecast at 8% for this year. With enhancements to rail, roads, ports and the like, China will become an even greater economic force.


TGR: What do investors in other regions think about precious metals and the U.S. dollar?

LR: Investors are very nervous about the outlook for the dollar, but it remains the global currency. With uncertainty remaining about the U.S. financial system, gold has become more important as a currency hedge, as an inflation hedge. People can see the long-term downtrend in the dollar. As a result, the dollar is seen more as a medium of exchange.

It’s held for the short term, by most investors. Of course, the Chinese government holds most of its $2 trillion dollars worth of foreign currency reserves in dollars. There is growing nervousness about that huge exposure and moves away. In part, the government is buying commodities.

TGR: It's been said that the Chinese government is buying commodities and stockpiling these commodities as a way to get out of the U.S. dollar. If this is true, should we expect commodity prices to fall when China has built up a significant stockpile and, if so, in what timeframe?

LR: The Chinese government is taking advantage of low metal prices to build strategic stockpiles. They are smart enough that they are not going to push the price up with their buying. Recovery in the West should dovetail with the Chinese buying so that the prices will not drop. The amount of actual commodities being bought for the stockpiles is small in relation to the total value of their reserves.

Much of the Chinese buying of commodities that we read about in the popular press is about Chinese companies in the private sector acquiring interests in metal deposits with the intent of developing mines. The Chinese mining industry is becoming quite large and it is only natural that they acquire resources.

TGR: What will be the impact on the U.S. dollar if/when commodity prices fall?

LR: I don’t believe commodity prices will fall. What we are seeing now are commodity prices that reflect weak demand as a result of the recession in the West. As the Western world gets back on track, commodity prices will continue higher.

TGR: What will be the impact on gold of a weakening dollar?

LR: Gold is denominated in dollar terms, so as the value of the dollar falls, the nominal value of gold rises in dollar terms. In addition, gold will appreciate in real terms as a growing number of investors turn to gold as a secure store of wealth.

TGR: Given your viewpoints, how should investors view gold/silver as part of an investment portfolio?

LR: Gold, silver and other commodities provide stability to a portfolio. But, owning bullion is not the most effective way to gain exposure to precious metals. A much more effective way to gain the currency hedge and the inflation hedge of precious metals is to own companies involved in the metals. Of course, that approach carries risk.

It also means that one must do some hard work to identify suitable companies. If you own the right companies, you stand to profit from developments within the companies. In addition, you can actually get a far more effective exposure to precious metals by owning a company. What I mean is that if precious metals go up by some percent, then companies will increase in value by a greater percent.
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