strategy
posted on
Oct 20, 2009 03:20PM
San Gold Corporation - one of Canada's most exciting new exploration companies and gold producers.
It would be great if SG could mine and sell their gold, pay the cash flow out as dividends, and everybody has more income than they know what to do with for the next 30 + years. (In the 1860's, John McKay, philanthropist, stockholder and CEO of the Consolidated Virginia silver mine, rarely sold a share. He mined and sold silver until it was depleted, paying out the cash in dividends to the stockholders. His own dividends totalled about 600 million dollars in today's money. (That, however, is not the business plan of most stockholders these days.)
Assuming the company will be sold, then how do you get the best price for the stock ?
1) Structure SG so it is valuable to multiple prospective buyers. My guess is that the Timmons deal or deals are structured to give enough economy of scale that the Timmons properties would be profitable to develop, even if you weren't already a neighbor as Goldcorp is. If there were only one interested buyer, as in "Goldcorp seems to be the best fit", then the only options is to sell to the one buyer at his price, or not to sell at all.
2) Have the framework in place such that the buyer with big, big bucks that SG does not have, can ramp up production fast enough to pay for most of their purchase price out of internally generated cash. My guess is that our buyer may sell enough production forward in the futures market to cover most expenses, the way American Barrick acquired properties, successfully, for years.
3) Prove as many high grade, accessible ore bodies as possible and do a minimum of redundant drilling. SG will be paid a lot more for having drill core evidence showing a 95% chance of having 15 million ounces, than a 99.99% chance of having 3 million oz.
4) Demonstrate that you control a lot more of the trend and prove the potential. Get some good drill cores toward open areas and give a buyer confidence that he could find lots more bullion-to-be after he bought the property.
5) Make an intelligent guess as to how the bigger economy is going to effect the gold market, and decide when and if it makes sense to sell.
John