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Message: Catch 22

Catch 22

posted on Dec 30, 2009 12:20PM

While the market tries to figure out if SGR is a producer or an explorer, the more gold out of the ground before a potential takeover or merger decreases minelife and the resource value the longer into the future production goes unless exploration can exponentially offset reserve depletion.

Annual production forecasts are meaningless IMO as they have a 1250tpd mill upgradeable to 1900 and can juice annual output with existing and recently discovered ore reserves to whatever suits their needs and the smart money already knows this. Manpower plus machinery plus ore reserves x average grade = y. No brainer.

So while Dale waxes about not being for sale, he should qualify that with 'yet' or 'not at this price' as the really big money is here for the exploration success and what 1900 tpd x the mystery ounces annually would do for the market cap.

What the market already knows is output and recovery, what it doesn't know is grade. A 43101 would either have to surprise gradewise, increase mineable low cost ore reserves substantially or be released in conjunction with a far bigger mystery for the market to figure out. Makes little sense just to release for release sake.

Just like a prize fight. You never throw the bomb first, it's usually in a combination with some fancy footwork and body blows and the best super heavy weights can go the distance. I know it's not Sun Tzu, but I'm sure he has a similar analogy.

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Dec 30, 2009 01:00PM
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Dec 30, 2009 02:41PM
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