Like others here, I've listened to Bon Hoye for a few years - two major things he has highlighted - the coming crash - which came dead on time - and the strength of gold, but especially the real price of gold, compared with say the CRB inedex.
he wasn't spot on during 2009 - the rebound has gone further and higher than expected - I believe he thinks the general stock market should turn over from here somewhere.
It is being suggested, gold bounce into the 1130s, then a fall to an important low later in Jan - then his likely targets are massive - and i thought he was fairly conservative.
read below
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye010610.html
Gold – More Consolidation Before the Next Leg in the Bull Market
Technical observations of RossClark@shaw.ca
Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
Posted Jan 6, 2010
Gold peaked one month ago at $1226. In the bull market of the past decade corrections have typically lasted 31 to 37 trading days, comprising an initial break of 13 (+/- 2) days and a recovery rally into the 22nd day (+/- 3). The decline into December 21st lasted 14 days and produced an RSI(14) reading of 37 right in line with the average time and technical readings of the past ten years.
An interim high is expected in the first week of January coupled with an RSI(14) reading in the range of 48 to 56. A reasonable target for upside resistance on that rally is the 14-day Bollinger Band, currently at $1136 and dropping at $4 per day. From there an important low could form just past the middle of the month.
The twenty week moving average (currently $1067) continues to be viewed as an important support in the ongoing bull market. Based upon the breakout of the 1980 to 2007 consolidation the measured targets for the next leg of the bull market are at $1600 and $2050.
The Commitment of Traders data continues to show high levels of speculative long positions and commercial shorts. The numbers have only dropped by 24,000 and 22,000 from their record readings. A decline of 35 to 40 thousand would be more representative of the minimum cleansing processes observed in the past decade.
