Re: More Detail
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 24, 2010 11:04PM
San Gold Corporation - one of Canada's most exciting new exploration companies and gold producers.
I'm not saying anyone is ignorant. Most here, have for one reason or another chosen SGR as a proxy to the bigger macro view that gold is the ultimate hedge against an uncertain future. That in itself suggests a certain level of intelligence, whether it's higher, who knows.
Accepting that the technicals seem to follow a rythym can't be denied when it's laid out and explained. Trading it wasn't initially what brought us here but seems like something most are starting to do which is probably written somewhere regarding psychology of markets of what not to do.
Fundamentally, given that we have all had a shot of the gold coloured Kool Aid, I guess "we can all agree"(Ron McLean) that there is no reason to doubt the analyst's reports and coverage and realize that today's sp is far less than most 12 month targets so why not buy on these low volume days while we're teetering on support? Why would you sell something today that will be/believed to be considerably higher a few months or years down the road unless you're trying to make a quick buck? If you are going to trade, then you need to draw some lines in the sand and they just can't arbitrary numbers. Getting 80% of a move pays more than 50% and picking entry and exit points changes with time and the general market. All I'm saying is TA helps and you can guarantee some of the volume on SGR is from the technical crowd so why not go with the flow?
My TA on SGR makes sense to me, explaining it in detail would require lots of what ifs and yeah buts.
My explanation for the 3.11 gap is that it is the only gap not filled since we broke above 3.31 and it was that gap that initiated high volume and a record share price and if that major move is going hold up and be part of a continuation trend, 3.08 is the obvious Fib choice and is also the 200 dma and major line of defense so why not put an order in at 3.10 and hope this is just a shakeout. If that breaks, there is/could be something wrong with the market.
The previous gap that was filled is in regards to the one between the second trading day after the high where the water fall gapped from 3.92 to 3.86. If you believed that that gap would fill eventually and 3.31 was support, then why not buy support and sell if the gap completes which is exactly what it did.
So it hits 3.92 on Jan 20th and you get the chart out and draw a line from 4.13 to 3.92 and extrapolate it over a time horizon and you get my post
So you sell it if it fails and buy it if it breaks above and repeat.
http://agoracom.com/ir/SanGold/forums/discussion/topics/406903-buy/messages/1343102#message
This time however, the big concern is the sp has broken below the bottom short term trend line plotted from 2.43 to 3.15 and is having trouble getting back over as this is also the 50 dma and there is obsolutely no volume. So if it breaks you buy and if it doesn't you sell, which puts us back at support today.
Somewhere around 3.11 to 3.08 seems like a logical entry point for a few traders.