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Message: Re: BB's opinion but Cashflow is Reality

Aug 17, 2013 12:50PM
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Aug 17, 2013 01:26PM
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Aug 18, 2013 01:54PM
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Aug 18, 2013 06:28PM

Absolutely cash flow is key and that what Ian has said a number of times is the priority. Old Silverback seems to have a "hate on" and IMHO seems to distorting the true facts on the rate of burn on the $50m and goes as far as states " inevitable bankruptcy" which is extreme, unfounded and unfair to the folks that still have an interest in this Company. Certainly you don't see any insiders selling and running and now we have a new investor risking $4m in cash (although his risk / reward is very good)

The $50m is gross before commissions etc, so say $46-47m. My understanding from hearing Gustur (at the AGM) is that current liabilities got built up (i.e. they stretched their suppliers) so when they got the proceeds they got their liabilities paid down to normal terms. Paying out George and his staff and closing the T.O. office cost likely cost another $2.5m plus the ongoing office rent commitment whick looks like $15k/mth. Their PP&E committments from GP and spend levels where too high and likely to everyone's surprise gold broke below an important resistance level of $1,520-1,525 when most thought it was going much higher.

You'll note in the Financial statements "cash contributions from operations" was positive $5.0m. This is the number you want to start with and subtract any "excess" exploration cost and +/- some others. The P&L contains many non cash expenses (depletion expense being the largest) so looking at a change in Financial Position statement is a better way to assess their quarterly cash burn. I'm not sure what it is per month now, but it must be better than it was on average in Q2. Have they turned the corner, will their cash last, will they survive?, I'm betting on it, just hope the price of gold doesn't get slammed down again for any extended amount of time. We certainly don't need any PM Funds forced to liquidate more of their holdings. All the juniors have got creamed by liquidations.

GLTA


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