Great discussion. Like all of you, I watch this with great interest (pun intended). A couple of points:

1) This is a CONfidence game. When the Fed owns 70% of debt issuance, is that a sign of confidence or an ACT meant to instill confidence?

2) The debt markets are bigger than the central banks. Sure, some say they could print their way out, but I don't think so. Debt-backed fiat currencies require money velocity to survive. There is NO money velocity except that which the Fed and other CBs provide. The Fed has $50B of equity against $3T of assets. A 100 basis point move in the bond markets whipes out their equity 6 times over. Does not do much for confidence IMHO. Will rising rates create money velocity? Quite the opposite - we (federal, local, private, corporate) are more leveraged than ever.

3) The majority of global derivatives are tied to interest rates. Counter parties failed to pay the last time derivatives blew up - it will be worse this time as the backstop has less capacity to soak it up and the problem is now bigger than in the first phase of the crisis.

4) The market rallies have been primarily because corporations have been on a debt-fueled stock buyback. This is a mirage of wealth, but in keeping with the Feds desperate attempt to create a wealth effect and velocity of money. If rates rise, corps will stop this behaviour and...you get the picture.

The last five years have been all about the CBs playing a confidence game and the market (and everyone else) believing it, or just front-running it. If confidence is lost, or front-running goes the other way, look out as this thing is so leveraged it will unwind in an uncontrolled fashion. It is my belief that confidence will be lost - either organically or through an external/international instigation. That is why I own gold. Not because "money printing causes inflation" - that's not the correct argument in my mind. It's because the confidence game is about to end, and markets won't know where to go.

My thoughts only, and I respect all other opinions. Best of luck to everyone.