One of the longest-running soap operas in the gold mining industry involves the efforts of Canadian companies Crystallex International Corp. and Gold Reserve Inc. to develop the prized Las Cristinas and Brisas deposits in Venezuela. They have run into well-documented opposition from Hugo Chavez's government, with the most recent example coming this week as reports suggested Venezuela will "take over" Las Cristinas.

Just what is the government planning to do? Investors can only guess at this point, but one insightful blogger from Latin America thinks he knows the answer.

Essentially, he argues that the government's partner of choice for gold mining is Vancouver-based Rusoro Mining Ltd. This makes some sense, because Rusoro is controlled by a Russian family that is very friendly with the government (and can capitalize on obvious ideological ties between Russia and Venezuela). The theory is that Crystallex and Gold Reserve could be nudged out of the picture, and Rusoro and the government would then team up to develop Las Cristinas and Brisas as one giant mine (they are next to each other) and split the proceeds 50-50.

It is worth remembering that Rusoro tried to take over Gold Reserve in August, and that the government indicated on Tuesday that Las Cristinas holds "31 million" ounces of gold, which is not likely unless Brisas is also included.

Peter Koven