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MINING / ALL THAT GLITTERS WON'T ALWAYS BE GOLD
ANDY HOFFMAN
00:00 EST Monday, November 02, 2009
For a major gold producer, there's nothing sexier than a big growth profile. When a miner boasts about boosting production, it seems investors can't get enough. But sexy is also risky.
Take Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. With no less than five new gold mines in construction the Toronto company had been the pinup boy of the gold world. Aginco shares surged from less than $40 a piece in June, 2007, to more than $75 in September as investors anticipated a major rise in production.
Agnico said new mines in Finland, Mexico, Quebec and Nunavut would increase annual production to 1.4 million ounces by 2012 from 265,000 in 2008. That still may happen, but last week Agnico's plans hit a nasty speed bump when ramp-up issues contributed to a third-quarter loss. Costs at its Finland mine soared to $1,080 (U.S.) an ounce.
Shares tanked. But no one should have been surprised. Startup woes are a fact of life for new mines, and the Finland issues are likely temporary.
Who might be the next to stumble? Goldcorp Inc.'s Penasquito mine in Mexico has had a flawless ramp-up so far. If it wants to avoid shareholders' wrath, Goldcorp must keep defying the odds and bring the mine into production. An update is expected Wednesday when Goldcorp unveils third-quarter results.