BMR July 15, SFF Technical write-up
posted on
Jul 16, 2010 03:50PM
Mazatlan, Mexico - Dryden, n/w Ontario - Fire project, ROF McFauld’s Lake On
We encourage our readers to take the time to listen to the 24-minute interview we did today with Seafield Resources’ (SFF, TSX-V) President/CEO Tony Roodenburg that was posted after the markets closed this afternoon. It’s very informative and also a great illustration of the development of a speculative junior resource company. At this time last year, Seafield was trading at only a nickel with just enough money in the bank to keep its doors open. It had potential though, for various reasons, which is why BullMarketRun began following Seafield and made it part of the BMR Portfolio.
From late last summer through the end of February, Seafield was very much a “momentum play” driven by a strong chart and a lot of speculation regarding its foray into Colombia. The stock got as high as 35.5 cents when we warned it was getting a little frothy. We didn’t expect the price would drop in half but that’s exactly what happened. The funny thing is, though, the fundamentals regarding Seafield now are better than ever. Investors know much, much more about the company’s Colombian properties and what the goals and possibilities are over the next six months and beyond.
You don’t make the big money in the junior resource market by chasing the “flavor of the month”. That’s usually the quickest way to lose money, actually. How you make huge profits is finding a company like Seafield with a very modest market cap, excellent projects, the right people on the ground and in the front office, money in the bank, promotional ability to bring attention and liquidity to the stock, and an exploration story that makes sense and provides major upside potential (Gold Bullion Development and others in our portfolio also fit that profile of course). You also need to be patient and understand that your investment may not double overnight or within a week, that it actually may take at least a few months to deliver the huge gains you’re looking for.
In the case of Seafield, the upside potential of this stock at the moment far exceeds the downside risk. It’s not hard to do the math on this one (Roodenburg walks us through it in the interview): Seafield has nearly 800,000 43-101 inferred ounces at Miraflores and expects the current drill program to increase that resource by at least 25%. At Dos Quebradas, Anglo came up with a non-compliant in-house estimate of 800,000 ounces. This target has a lot of blue sky potential and the thinking is that the upcoming drill program at Dos Quebradas could more definitively determine the potential for at least a million ounces by year-end (and maybe another million or more by sometime in 2011). At Chuscal, Seafield has a great opportunity to complete a “triple play” and turn that property into another significant deposit (>1 million ounces) within a year.
By the end of 2010 – just five-and-a-half months away – Seafield very realistically could be sitting on 2 million ounces at Quinchia. In that case you’re likely looking at a minimum market cap of $50 million. Seafield’s current market cap is $17 million.
With 68 square kilometres, Seafield is the largest landholder in the Quinchia District which is part of the prolific Mid Cauca Porphyry Belt. Medoro’s (MRS, TSX-V) 9.5 million ounce Marmato Deposit is only about 10 kilometres to the north of where Seafield is. The individuals who assembled Medoro’s land package (Ian Park and Stewart Redwood) are the same individuals running Seafield’s Colombian operations. Park and Redwood know exactly what they’re doing and we have complete confidence that they are going to pull together a multi-million ounce resource for Seafield.
The fact Seafield’s share price has been languishing for a few months doesn’t bother us in the least – the fundamentals are going to take over in the near future. This is a good company with a terrific land package and a whole lot more going for it. Those who don’t see that right now will be the ones chasing this stock at much higher levels down the road or kicking themselves for not taking a position at favorable prices when the opportunity was there.
To listen to the Roodenburg interview, go to our story posted earlier today (“Seafield Resources: President/CEO Interview) and click on the link near the bottom of that story.