Don't be Fooled By Gold's Tired Look

By Rick Ackerman Jul 1 2009 10:01AM www.rickackerman.com

Gold futures eased lower yesterday, apparently too tired for the time being to continue treading water. The Comex August contract settled at 927.40, down a little more than one percent on the day. If you’re a long-term investor looking to do some bargain-hunting, however, we’d advise waiting for even better prices, since it looks as though the futures could fall to as low as 899.00 over the next 6-8 days. That would be a back-up-the-truck buying opportunity as far as we’re concerned, since the downside in bullion seems limited for now. The 899.00 target is a “Hidden Pivot” support, and it appears capable of engendering a tradable bounce. Although that number is not yet a lead-pipe cinch to be reached over the near term, it would become an odds-on bet following a two-day close beneath a less important “hidden” support at 924.00. For the record, the absolute worst we could see over the next month or so would be a test of late April’s lows near 882.

Incidentally, we don’t regard price declines in gold as a sign of weakness; rather, we see quiet, steady accumulation that seems to be in no hurry to launch the moon shot that we all know is coming someday. This is evident in the chart above, which shows how comfortable gold has become at a cruising altitude above $900. That’s where gold futures have spent the last five months, but even if they fell out of that range, descending to as low as $800, you can see for yourself that it wouldn’t significantly change the long-term bullish look of the chart.

We’re not so sure about the broad averages, however. Yesterday we turned the spotlight on Goldman shares, which have served as a reliable bellwether in 2009. The stock is close to an upside breakout that would almost surely lead the broad averages higher. However, until the stock pushes above the old recovery high, 151.25, we’re not going to jump the gun. Yesterday’s punk consumer confidence numbers delivered a body blow to investors. However, the Dow was off by just 82 points and probably should have come down harder if anyone was truly concerned about this latest piece of evidence that the U.S. economy is failing to lift from its by-now historical depths. Although we see almost no possibility of an end to the Great Recession in 2009, we recognize that stocks could continue to rise nonetheless, in a warp of cyclical insanity, until the last bear has thrown in the towel.