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Message: Turning Point for SFMI?

I am an SFMI investor since 2/10 and also in GHDC shortly after that.I don’t do facebook or anything like that, and have never posted on a blog, but I have been following the commentary here and on IHUB.So, first, as I step into this new arena, let me say thank you to spiny, sinbob, bigpic (we met in the Silver City schoolhouse after lunch when you were trying to avoid too much sun), and others who have provided much helpful information for me over the past several months.In addition to your info, I have also done my own DD.I attended the SFMI SHM and had opportunity to meet several of you to compare notes.

I am very positive with regard to both companies, and I hold over 1M shares of SFMI like many of you.And, unlike some of you, I am not a slick trader, so I am long SFMI.Further, I agree with almost all that has been posted by many of you who visited War Eagle Mountain in summary of the SHM, site visit, tours, etc.The only area where I would ask for clarification from someone is regarding possible ongoing dilution.I have read at least one post indicating that it was said that there is plenty of cash on hand and that there would be no need for further dilution.My reason for asking is that I didn’t hear PQ say specifically during the SHM that there would be no more dilution, but rather that, as a shareholder like us, he would do all that he could to try to minimize future dilution.He suggested that the hiring of a mine manager (anticipated before Christmas) might require shares as part of the package.Further, I didn’t hear him say that that would be the only reason to dilute in the future.From my standpoint, I would expect the company to have some costs covered by shares during the transition from no production, to loans against concentrate, to constant production and revenue.So, I would not be surprised to see some minimal dilution reflected in the next 10Q, and I would not be disappointed if it is there.Perhaps there was some dilution prior to the SHM and now there is no need for it.I just am not totally clear based on what I heard, and I was listening carefully in the front row.

Also, with regard to the 10Q in November, I believe that it will show little if any income.I say this because I have not heard of any concentrate being sent to the smelter, and by extension believe that none would have been sold in Q3.Given that I believe that the November 10Q will show possible additional dilution and little if any revenue, I still am very positive about the company.I am curious if some of the rest of you would comment on what you expect from that report and whether or not you think it will have significant impact at this stage of the game.

So, if I am expecting a negative 10Q, why am I still positive?I’ll tell you. For the past four months, the mill has been starting, stopping, and fine tuning using the SFMI “trash” at 5-7 gm gold / ton.We are told that we now have a respectable store of concentrate, and we anticipate that it will be sent to the smelter soon.If it took four months to get this amount of concentrate, when will the next batch be ready to go out?Assuming that SFMI is ready to start processing the higher grade ore 2-4 ounces gold / ton, and assuming that the ratio of gold and silver is similar as in the “trash” ore, and that the mill is running at a steady rate, it should only take 13 days to generate the same amount of concentrate again if the yield is 2 oz gold / ton, only 6.5 days if the yield is 4 oz gold / ton.This suggests that we could get smelter results back from the poor ore and from the good at the same time, or at least very close together.It also suggests that a steady revenue stream could come online very quickly with concentrate being shipped out every 1-2 weeks. Couple that with PQ’s plans to have a mine manager engaged before Christmas, ongoing rehab of the Sinker tunnel, etc., etc., etc., and I remain positive, very positive.I think we are nearing a real turning point for the company.

Many have pointed out that this is a speculative stock, and I understand that, but there is speculative and there is speculative.Think of it this way, if I am sitting on a railroad track, I could speculate that a train could come sometime and I would need to move.When the smoke starts puffing up above the trees, and the sounds of engine groaning and horns can be heard, I am speculating that a train could be coming.Now, when the track starts vibrating and even though I don’t see a train yet, my speculating is over and I’m getting my butt off the track.

This is what is happening with SFMI.There is overwhelming evidence that the train is coming:we have historical data of the mountain, we have preliminary assay data from the piles of ore, we have excessive high grade above ground reserves, we have a fully functional mill producing gold and silver as witnessed by about 100 shareholders, and we have an environment in which gold and silver are in greater demand as world currencies are devalued.Friends, it is time to start thinking about getting off of the tracks.The rails are vibrating, and the train is almost here.

Good luck to all and thank you for all of your posts.

JMHO, of course.

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Oct 02, 2010 03:50PM

Oct 02, 2010 04:20PM

Oct 06, 2010 11:25AM
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