and yes the "trader's ball" is still on. Thanks for the kind words Pic...and yes BOUTS, I am Spratt " (derived partially from Sprott...a great Cdn. PMs and resource Fund) over there" in "myopia". They wouldn't let me post under Sinbob...huh! I get accused of surrepticiously posting under many alias' but it ain't so. I am also restricted to 2 posts/day and many of my posts are deleted...especially if they touch a raw nerve with "the establishment".

Sometimes I just get sick of all the redundant crap...sometimes designed that way to discourage those who are quite emotional or not very steeped in the PM markets. Often, I get angry at myself for just wasting my time posting on that site. However, like others who post here, I post there hoping that a bit of the truth may stick and that some newer investors to the PM/JPM markets will seek to further understand and research them. I also respect the kind of effort and knowledge several members here expend over there..and here of course...and there is always somethng to learn. Trying to remember it all is another story.

I consider this forum and the one over at ECU two of the best around because of the integrity and incredibly diversified education that is given openly and always backed by substance. I marvel at the scepticism and duplicity on the many "Iblubs" because so many do not understand what integrity is. Many "play" the markets based totally on unprincipled, dishonest and disingenuous motivations. They think that is how the markets work today and who can blame then for that is what Wall St. is all about, only it is peaking now. Knowing how to screw others out of their money is the clever thing to do. Skimming off the flow through from indebted widows and orphans ...and all the drowning taxpayers... is the way to untold wealth....by way of fractional banking, fractional gold, HF trading, huge leverage, derivatives, illegal naked shorting...etc., it goes on so far that it becomes overwhelming...unless you understand what Pic and others already know...and some days it even confounds the very best and the very brightest.

This is what happens in not-free-trading markets when powerful entities are now above the law. When $billions/week are printed up and injected into the DOW and S&P...and bonds and suppressing gold and silver and their stocks...and pretty well manipulating most commodities...and in the process of cornering the global copper markets...to name a few...us little germs have to try to figure out what their next move is. Tough to do. For instance, tomorrow, will they smash gold and silver for a year end hit? The way the PM stocks traded today, it could happen...or maybe not. That s the joy of it all...it is up to "them". ..and all the greedy little funds and MMs go along for the ride with smarmy intent. And these last little predators are really being set up by their mentors for a big hit themselves. . . for they do not know whereof they speak.

As for SFMI, it has all pretty well been said...again thanks to so many here. I don't know what to expect tomorrow or next week...as above, too many legit and illegit games being played with this stock and most promising JPMs...but I, like other longs, have a pretty good idea of what to expect over the next several months. I don't expect the smelter revenue news to be that impactful on the stock price because, after trying to filter out all the estimations, it would appear that the returns will be modest measured against some of the expectations... as Rich has indicated. We shall see.

Here is what I just posted "over there" from MIDAS tonight, just for cheek:

Mexico Mike…

Bubble?

Hi Bill!
I trust you have enjoyed a nice holiday season. Today is the first day of trading after the break that has both Canadian and US exchanges operating on normal business hours. Earlier this week the metals were rising and the US stocks had a nice rally but Canadian listings were not trading. So what do we get today? Despite the fact that all precious metals have continued the run to the upside, many Canadian stocks have not priced in the gains since the Christmas break. In fact the majority of stocks posted a strong rise in the first hour of trading and have since been selling off as the day continues. This trading behaviour is also evident in the HUI and the XAU at midday. Here we are with gold and silver on the brink of setting new highs for this bull market and the significant mining stocks are not able to sustain modest gains.

There has been so much commentary directed at the precious metals market, most of which describes the activity as a bubble. I have participated in this sector for 20 years, and even as the bull market has been confirmed and the metals have been rising for many years, the speculative mania phase has only been a factor for short intervals of trading during that time. Instead, most of this move has been a stealth bull with few market participants aware of the action in this sector. And there have been far more dramatic downside swings along the way that are more accurately described as a test of commitment.

There are a number of conditions that I would consider to be classic indications of a PM sector bubble and none of them are in effect today:

* We have not seen IPOs in the sector that double or triple on the first day of trading. In contrast many IPO listings are immediately sold off as early investors take profits. The new gold play Pretium Resources is a good example of a high quality company with strong management that is drifting sideways with low volume even as the gold price has been rising.

* We have not seen bullish commentary on specific mining stocks widely discussed on major market networks.

* We have not witnessed line ups at coin shops and retail bullion stores. * There has not been a single bidding war for a takeover target or other players emerging for a hostile acquisition.

* Institutional guidance has mostly suggested lower or flat price projections for the majority of stocks and the metals. Many analysts have recently downgraded price targets for the producers in 2011.

* The vast majority of junior mining stocks remain in low price regimes with low trading volume. So far it has only been a small slice of the sector that is enjoying strong moves and much of this can be attributed to the ownership of newly launched junior miner ETFs that still represent very small players in the ETF universe.

Now I know that the Canadian Venture exchange has seen a very strong move off the lows, and many of the world mining juniors are listed on this exchange. However one must also consider just how far below the highs this exchange currently trades, even though the price of gold and silver have since roughly doubled in price since those highs were achieved. Is this indicative of a bubble? I think not.

Many of the established producing miners are now posting net positive earnings today. This was not common a couple of years ago when the stocks were still trading at higher levels. In what other sector do the market leaders trade at lower multiples year-over-year even after they establish earnings traction? In contrast during the tech bubble, companies that were not even posting recurring revenues were able to trade at astronomical premiums.

I do fully expect that we will enter a bubble phase further along in this cycle. I think the investment publications will feature front page stories on obscure mining plays. I think network financial outlets will dedicate blanket coverage on mining news and company profiles. I think major money inflows are coming into the sector from individuals that have no mining exposure at all today. I think we will see double digit gains in many stocks for weeks at a time without the rapid drive to profit taking that is in effect today after any small upside move. All of this is coming, but we are a long way from that today.

Right now a handful of really good companies have broken away from the pack and started making new trading highs. Perhaps this is the action that has made some observers cautious about a bubble. Fine. But the very fact that people are cautious and taking profits so quickly is the confirmation that this up trend has much further to run. We have seen many examples of market bubbles in the past - this ain't.
cheers!
MexicoMike