good post from IW
posted on
Mar 11, 2011 01:21PM
(Edit this Message from the "Fast Facts" Section)
My one post of the day is up, and here is IW's one post of the day from ischulb
Yeah oryx. I mean.... I've always maintained that genuine professional-investor-type interest in SFMI was out there and that it was not affixed to a 43-101 or a drilling program to define the resource.
Note that Roswell is stepping in and agreeing to buy at a 3% discount.... not based on a the "guarantee" of a 43-101 / drilling program.... but PRIOR to such. They are willing to put money on the table with no 43-101 or drilling program having "guaranteed" the existence of value.
Lets grant the plain truth: the issuance of the shares involved in a 7 plus million investment is, in share terms, dilutive. At current prices, for example, 7 plus million shares amounts to approximately 48 million shares.
Well, if there are 48 million newly tradable shares, what would the guys putting out the money expect to happen? Obviosly, given the 3% discount, they could sell and get an immediate 3% return if the price stays the same. Compounded on a yearly basis, if you can generate a 3% return in less than a month, you have outperformed most hedge funds out there. But any significant portion of these 48 million shares showing up is surely going to generate dilution that has, in ACUARIAL terms, a high degree of likelihood of causing a share price decline that ia greater than the guaranteed 3%.
So obviously, Roswell has so much confidence in SFMI, even without that sacred tome, the 43-101, that they are willing to buy in in such a way that they are likely losing money at the point the money changes hands.
How many of you would send somebody 7 million dollars under an arrangement that all but guarantees a short term loss?
The only way any sane outfit would do such a thing is a situation where the actual value in SFMI's piles and in the ground was so convincingly demonstratable that the originating paper loss is irrelevent!!!
The number of shares sold at a 3% discount is directly correlated to the dilution. Put in terms that are so obvious that it humiliates me to even have to point it out, Roswell is so convinced that there is a huge return here, that they are willing to spring for the financing to do anything necessary for a mere 3% discount and fully cognizant that they lose money, on paper, due to predictable dilution from the new issuance of fully tradable shares.
And look at the obvious: they do not get a BOD seat in the deal, or so it appears. And where does it say they have control over the manner in which the miney gets spent? Im sure they want a 43-101 and a drilling program and a new ball or roller mill. I'm sure they want the wmelter finished and put online, but in none of these instances do they require control.
I mean.... it is obvious that, even with no 43-101, these guys looked at the KNOWN facts about SFMI, and came away willing to buy a considerable amount of shares, and that they demand no controlover the manner in which the expenditure is done.
Well, IMHO, this is absolutely 100% clear in its meaning: These guys are putting a great deal of money into SFMI on the basis of value that is really there, even though all the financial wizards in the world have steadfastly held to the erroneous viewpoint, in the case of SFMI, that value could not be perceived in the piles and in the ground without the scientific sacred cow (a 43-101) being sacrificed on the alter of outside control.
I have always maintained that SFMI did not have to sell the future to finance the present by complying with the cacophony of angry and greedy voices who always demand that the normal path be taken and control be granted in exchange for financing. This agreement with Roswell does not build in outside control of SFMI by the investing party. The investing party gets to profit, but the shares involved do not require that SFMI deliver control to outside investors. These are not restricted shares. These are not class B voting shares. These are ordinary, tradable shares, and the value conveyed to Roswell is directly connected to the marketability of the shares on the exact same basis as every other shareholder out there. Simple as that.
Obviously, Roswell does not think a drilling program to establish the resource is a sine qua non (Latin for "without which nothing"). Obviously Roswell does not think much of the idea that a 43-101 is a requirement before they will place a chunk of change into the kitty.
They are investing on the basis of the regularly discredited "history of the site", not on the basis of the asset being pre-defined by scientific methodology.
This is a massive ground swell of 100% complete support of each and every assertion that has ever been made about there being genuine value in the tailings and in War Eagle Mountain with or without the sacred science of a 43-101.
There is value in the ground and in the piles. It is real.
This Roswell deal is not a bad deal for SFMI.
Will SFMI have decreased value at the end of 2011? I personally feel that, apart from the unpretictable (such as a massive earthquake), it will. And given this Roswell deal, it is apparent o me that I am not alone. Outside parties, with a lot more money on the line, seem to share my confidence that this is a tremendous investmentopportunity. Simply obvious.
Hers what I see coming up:
SFMI will very soon tell the world that there is massive value in those piles. Roswell knows this or they would never have thrown their money at SFMI.
There is massive value in the Sinker tunnel. Roswell knows this or they would never have thrown their money at SFMI.
SFMI will put the smelter into production pronto. Count on it. Roswell knows this or they would never have thrown their money at SFMI.
SFMI has a big resevoir of valuable concentrate that has been accumulated. Its value will soon be told. Roswell knows this or they would never have thrown their money at SFMI.
The improvements to the mill building, the dewatering belt equipment, and the new ball or roller mill will go into service soon and the output from the mill will improve in terms of both efficiency and resultant value per ounce. Roswell knows this or they would never have thrown their money at SFMI.
Be of good cheer, folks. Don't require other people to premasticate this deal for you. Put your thinking caps on for yourselves. See the obvious fact that Roswell is spending real money and not buying special privilidges and extra advantage. They obviously see genuine value here and they have put their money on the table, in plain sight. Think it out logically for yourselves. I seriously doubt there is any chance any logical arguments contradicting my above conclusions will be put forward.
The completely unknown "black swan event" (or events) could still happen, but as a vote of confidence in the actual, genuine, real value that is represented by the historical evidence that is the basis of every viewpoint I've ever posted, this announcement by Roswell could not be more vindicating.
:o)
Imperial Whazoo