Re: Why buyout is painless
in response to
by
posted on
Aug 01, 2011 10:32AM
(Edit this Message from the "Fast Facts" Section)
All true Garick.
Buyout price or buyout value? ....moving window of time from now to?
Today, hypothetically, a predatory offer on a stock like SFMI could easily come in at 30 cents. However, any prospective buyer might look at the strong hand shareholders and figure that such an offer would be fruitless.
If realisitic, knowing that the competitive forces beginning to show up, a good offer would be about $1. ( I expect by late Fall, it will be "who moves first"?) Smart move since it is pretty apparent that WEM has the goods and in one year could easily have SFMI aT $2 TO $4...if the universe unfolds as expected for gold, silver and the JPMs...and SFMI, which will be miles down the road by then.
So, let's say the GDX is at least double for a yardstick. That is for the average play. A rare junior with high grade, high tonnage promise with all infrastructure in place would command multiples higher...especially in a safe political (I think) and environmental haven. SFMI is like a pre-fab designer home with optional high end modular additions... with a beautiful lot, sceneic view and all services included. Get a deal now or pay up bigtime later.
Knowing all that today, if I were an adventurous mid tier junior, having thoroughly kicked the tires, I would offer $2/share for SFMI today while shaking my head at the theft of it all. Or, how about a junior that was trading at say, $4/share just doing a share offer at one to one? Again, a steal. Yes, we have a large share base but it won't matter in a year methinks. Just look at the peers that don't have anywhere near the potential of SFMI...some have double or close to triple the dilution....and many of them don't even have infrastucture etc. ..and to rub it in, many are trading much higher. The trick is to make the curb appeal appear as dismal as possible (orchestrated by the potential buyer/s of course ...see ECU).
Those are just a few thoughts that pop to mind this beautiful morning in Winnipeg.
By the way fellow Canadians...did you know that today's holiday in Canada is to mark "emancipation day" here? Yes indeed. We Canadians did observe the day that slavery was abolished.
I wonder when "emancipation day" will come for the JPMs?