I'm not sure it will get that low, but you might be right. If we do reach those levels, it will have to be soon...very soon. Here are my reasons:

1. Come January, the budget and debt ceiling charade starts up again, which was quite yucky for the USD. Low dollar=higher commodity prices. Whatever the low might be by the end of December should be the low for a long time.

2. The end of the year is usually bullish for stocks, especially in the context of this amazing, multi-year bull run. Why should investors pull out of stocks and go into metals at this stage of the game? Doesn't make sense.

3. I think the Fed is stuck. They know the economy is poopy. They also know they should scale back the $1T a year asset purchases. If they taper in the foreseeable future, the market will get crushed, and they can't have that. Equities have been the only real solid source of inflation...and the FED has stated that they need to see inflation before peeling back. Tapering would be counter-intuitive. I'm with Peter Schiff on this one: they will add to their purchases before they taper, IMO. Unless, of course, they have a bigger plan in the works which necessitates the destruction of freemarket capitalism. But I delve into the realm of conspiracies...and who wants a conspiracy theorist giving his opinion on anything, right! ;)

4. The metals have been in a short term bear trend for a couple years. Usually something big has to change the direction of trends. Nothing seems to be on the horizon until January that has the potential to do this. JMO.

5. Last, but definetly not least. A woman is primed to run the most powerful central bank in the world, which dictates the fiscal direction of the most powerful economy the world has ever seen. You are wise and know how to apply it. ;)