Re: A sea change emerging...but to what?
posted on
Feb 13, 2014 12:21AM
(Edit this Message from the "Fast Facts" Section)
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Here's hoping that you are correct that it is "insiders" scooping up the shares. We know change is coming, presumably in the direction of better management, but what are the ramifications for present stockholders? The main reason that people have stayed in this stock so long is of course WEM. Another reason (at least for me) was that insiders (PQ et al.) accumulated boatloads of stock, selling very little- not what happens in a scam. One would have thought that PQ would have wanted to make his stock worth as much as possible, and we would go along for the ride. Unfortunately, his arrogance, incompetence, and need for control got in the way- his ego overcame his greed.
There will be a lot of rearranging going on- we see it already with the coming changes in GHDC. Present stockholders there will end up with a smaller chunk of the company once the changes are effected, but presumably the value of the company will be increased enough to more than make up for it, maybe even enough to turn a profit for long term holders who bought at much higher prices. Will the same thing happen with SFMI? Much of our leverage has been diluted to hell, much moreso than with GHDC. Hell, PQ even had GHDC borrow from SFMI (in the form of shares) to pay his family's excessive double-dipping GHDC salaries in order to avoid diluting GHDC. I think there will be two things to look for to see what is in store for present stockholders. First, will any financing be done through shares (I sure hope not, not at present prices) or through loans at a reasonable rate (maybe with the ore as collateral)? The first would result in major dilution and transfer of much of the company to the new money guys, the second would result in reasonable debt that can be paid off if the financing is enough to get things moving quickly- leach system, test ore from the Sinker, contract milling. The second thing that will determine the fate of present stockholders is if your conjecture is true and it's "insiders" buying up the seemingly endless supply of shares. Maybe it's simply cheaper to buy the shares than pay the penalty of paying off Iliad in cash. If so, then they will have at least a marginally greater stake in increasing the value of the present shares, maybe enough to make sure that any financing is non-diluting.
The next few weeks should tell the tale. It's the old Chinese curse: "May your life be interesting".