this is from adam hamilton of zeal intelligence. he foresees an autumn rally in precious metals.

http://www.zealllc.com/2008/pmdold.htm

The hard truth is that June and July are just not a great time to expect meaningful gold and silver rallies.

In light of this precedent, the most prudent course of action from a probability standpoint is to lower our PM expectations for summer 2008. If you add any PM-related positions, don’t expect too much out of them until autumn. Don’t get discouraged if your existing PM positions drift sideways to lower. When gold and silver grind listlessly, often the PM stocks will slowly drift lower as impatient traders sell.

So if this lackluster summer action has surprised and discouraged you, it shouldn’t have. Slow sideways-to-lower summer grinds are par for the course in PMs. This is one of the great benefits of being a student of the markets. By studying past behavior, one’s expectations for future behavior can be tempered to align much more closely with probable outcomes. And if you’re prepared, then you can’t get discouraged.