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Message: Thoughts from Biiwii.com --gold & silver

Thoughts from Biiwii.com --gold & silver

posted on Feb 12, 2009 09:22AM

HUI-Gold ratio

Posted: 12 Feb 2009 04:46 AM PST

The HUI-Gold ratio has still gone nowhere as it continues to consolidate the 'handle' of the lovely 'W' bottom, the top of which continues to provide support. Now, consolidations are beautiful things because they give us time to examine their nature, feel and look. They also provide plenty of time to drain the spirits of people who do not use charts effectively. I have no doubt that some gold bugs, renowned for their ability to swing from over bullish to over bearish, sold this handle before yesterday's upside.

Now of course, nothing is settled here. My target for HUI remains 350+/- and HUI-Gold .41 in the near term. But if it were as easy as just looking at a chart for 100% accuracy you would not be coming to this blog, because it would not exist. I would be too busy playing rock music and jetting around the world with my family looking for a nice 2nd home in the likely event the domestic mess comes unglued. No, there is sentiment to consider, and it is being led by the always ready to chomp the bit silver bugs. Then there are the gold bugs beginning to feel that oh so sweet sense of validation again... these are signs of a mature rally which has now been in progress for 3.5 months.

Still, charty say 'stay on track Gary, stay on track NFTRH'. But charty also say keep reminding subscribers that taking profits is always a good idea. You got 'em? You met your goals? Remember that the market will at some point taketh away.

All that said, the HUI-Gold ratio still looks good considering it has not yet gone anywhere. But at such time as it may hit .41, I will not just hint at taking profits or the ZSL silver short for hedging. I will pound the table, at least as much as I ever do. In other words I will simply state that this is what I am doing and why. This is because an HUI-Gold ratio at .41 is very likely to coincide with an upside blowoff of short or more likely, intermediate significance.

Let's illustrate the HUI target zone...

Posted: 11 Feb 2009 10:03 AM PST

HUI locks and loads...

Posted: 11 Feb 2009 09:14 AM PST

I am not going to pump you, hype you or 'I told you so' you. But me being me, I am merely going to put up a chart of silver surrogate SLV, which is approaching our target with all the, shall we say enthusiasm germane to the silver bugs. So, a chart of 200% short silver vehicle ZSL is provided as well. One might think about how far the silver gold ratio has come off the bottom and silver's proximity to the same resistance levels the HUI is facing and one might consider our target of 350+/- and think, 'hmmm, might I consider hedging my gold miners a bit at some point?'Edit (12:11) A subscriber has asked me to be more clear on defining time frames, so the 350 HUI target is just near term before the risk of significant corrective activity crops up. On a more intermediate basis, the target remains 450.

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