this is from a recent interview with david morgan:

The Beginning of the Current Cycle

"We have been in the formative stages of a major bull market," said Mr. Morgan. In fact, gold has gone as low as $252 an ounce in the beginning of the cycle but now we over the $1100 mark in late 2009.

Silver hit a low of around $4.50 in the same time frame and has been as high as $21 dollars an ounce in 2008.

"We've been through stage one and I believe we've seen the easy money being made,'' says Morgan.

From 2002 to 2006 resource investments proved easy to acquire. Financing was easy to get and many of the mining stocks did well even those of questionable merit. However, those days are gone.

The Intermediate Phase

What’s happening now is that the market is experiencing an intermediate phase. Morgan says, "This is where we'll get more serious investors and more serious money into the sector." Investors will likely be more selective on who they'll invest with. Morgan sees this phase lasting a couple of more years.

The Blow Off

Morgan predicts that later in the cycle the market will experience a "blow off or panic stage as I refer to it." In this stage, the institutional investors will come in stronger. If they come in strong it's likely that the public will be "coming in droves" as Morgan says. This may cause huge swings in silver and gold and mining company share prices.

The Near Term Prospects

From a long term perspective, Morgan sees gold doubling to $2000 per ounce at a minimum.

And while it's impossible to predict the market for any term, short or long, Morgan notes some indicators suggest that gold may be peaking in the very near term. What concerns him about this is that silver and the underlying main equities do not appear to be confirming this move.

Also, having diligently studied the commodities side and seeing the positioning between the professional and amateur investor, Morgan feels there may be a pull back in gold over the next few weeks.

While cautioning again that no one knows if this pull back will materialize, Morgan says, "I think we're getting a little ahead of ourselves in the gold market right now."

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverInvestor/1261029840.php