Message: Antimony prices expected to go to $6,000/ton in 2007 7 & stay until 2010!
Antimony
Chinese policy reforms bring stability to antimony market
Decades of market instability for the main minerals and metals produced by China appear to be finally over. Boom and bust manipulation of markets and prices through alternate dumping of supplies and withdrawal from the market of commodities such as tungsten, tin and antimony had all but destroyed mine output and development in competing countries. The extent to which it had ravaged China's own mineral resources through over-exploitation, high-grading, damage to mine workings and loss of life was apparently only recently recognised by Chinese authorities. Widespread mine shutdowns and investigations that followed led to wide-ranging policy reforms aimed at resource conservation, orderly development, mine safety, environmental protection and value-added further processing, all controlled by quotas and licensing of mining, smelting and exporting. As with everything the Chinese do in the antimony industry, the changes had worldwide effect. Prices rose from the 40 year low of less than US$1,000/t in August 2001, to the US$5,300 to US$5,400/t level as of mid 2007. Moreover, a number of factors not present during past buoyant price periods indicate that the recovery will endure. China is now also the largest importer of ores and concentrates, and its own domestic demand has also become the world's largest. This solid foundation for the antimony industry has reawakened interest in antimony resources in Australia, North America, Latin America, Russia and elsewhere, and new projects are under development. Cambrian Mining plc's Costerfield, Australia project began production in January 2006 and with the refurbished Straits Hillgrove Gold project in New South Wales going forward, Australia will be producing over 12,000tpy antimony metal equivalent.
The key trends, issues and developments in the market are analysed in this major new report from Roskill. It provides a clear insight into the industry and its trends, and an authoritative analysis of the prospects for the future.
- Forecasts for end-use consumption and world supply and demand
- Detailed survey of production and processing in 51 countries
- Up-to-date profiles of the activities of antimony producing and processing companies, including Hsikuangshan Shanxing Antimony Co, Metorex, Campine, Sudamin and Liu Zhou China Tin Group Co Ltd
- Independent, in-depth research and analysis
- Essential market intelligence for successful business planning
Report highlights
Flame retardants account for about 70% of primary antimony demand and 90% of the demand for antimony trioxide. More stringent flammability standards and safety legislation, together with increased demand for plastics and IT-related products, will result in higher demand for flame-retardants. World demand for antimony trioxide in this market is forecast to rise by 7.5% annually from an estimated 106,000t in 2004 to 152,000t by 2009.
PET catalysts provide a further area of growth for antimony trioxide, with growth again concentrated in new industrialising countries where markets for PET containers for carbonated soft drinks, beer and mineral water are less mature. Asian demand for bottle-grade PET is forecast to grow at over 10%py to the end of the decade.
Structural changes in the antimony sector, which began in the late 1990s, arose with growing exports from China of antimony trioxide at the expense of antimony metal. Between 1996 and 2006, Chinese exports of antimony trioxide grew from 20,000t to 41,300t. Over the same period, US production fell from 24,000-26,000tpy to 1,500t by 2006, a 94% drop.
Installed capacity in China should be sufficient to meet world forecast trioxide demand growth of 7%py through 2010 and idled capacity in Europe could come into play with new antimony mine output outside of China. Prices have plateaued at around US$5,500/t. A number of factors, including the measures taken by the Chinese government, support continued buoyant antimony prices.
The fact that mine production outside of China will be required to meet future demand ensures that higher-cost operations, the very ones that were closed because of price deterioration in the past, will be maintained. Comparing the future supply situation with forecast demand indicates a near balance in supply and demand. As a result Roskill expects antimony prices to rise to US$6,000/t during 2007 and to remain at or around this level to 2010.
Buy This Report Now
The Economy of Antimony published 06/07/2007
231 pages, 170 tables and 21 figures.
ISBN 978 0 86214 530 9
Complete report price:
GBP 2400 
EUR 4200 
USD 4800
plus postage/packing.
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