World antimony production peaked at 203,500t Sb in 2011, driven by continued growth in Asian, particularly Chinese, demand. Antimony producers remain highly dependent on the flame retardant and lead-acid battery industries, which together accounted for nearly 80% of antimony consumption worldwide in 2011. Growth in consumption is set to continue in 2012 and beyond, but the extent to which supply will match demand will depend on investment in new mine production and China’s domestic policy over the medium term.

China remains by far the world’s largest producer of primary antimony, with 70% of mine output in 2011. Production in China is unlikely to increase over the next few years and could even fall in the face of government determination to limit environmental damage from smaller and more polluting operations. These measures have already led to a number of suspensions and closures at mines and smelters, with some plants unable to meet the costs of upgrading and improving their facilities. This, together with increasing crackdowns on illegal mining and smuggling, has contributed to volatile production levels and therefore pricing.

Official Chinese statistics still report considerable antimony reserves, but independent estimates suggest that reserves, particularly in the in the area of Lengshuijiang City, the centre of antimony mining in China, are running low. Although some new resources were discovered in 2011, very few deposits have been explored or developed in recent years. There is an increasing need for China to import more concentrates to sustain domestic refined production. Increased mine production elsewhere in the world is likely to offset any declines in Chinese production in the short term. A number of significant additional sources of antimony concentrates in Europe, North America, Africa and Oceania could add over 14,000tpy Sb to world mine capacity within the next four years.

Despite this, it is probable that a demand deficit will grow over the years ahead. The deficit could be compounded if the Chinese government is successful in halting or diminishing both illegal production and exports of antimony. Uncertainty over China’s ability to increase production due to resource and environmental limitations, together with continued growth in demand for antimony, especially trioxide, means that prices, in real terms, are likely to remain in a range US$11,000 - 14.000/t

World: Antimony production and consumption, 2000-2011

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