World faces hi-tech crunch as China eyes ban on rare metal exports

time spent trying to shout down the other guy is time wasted. And it looks idiotic to those lurking.

we are in a global economy. it's both a competition and cooperation at the same time. we all need to have our noses down and busy focusing on how to make things better.

if we run out of important resources, we all lose. it's in our collective interest to find new ways to succeed without them!

Panda troll: ya think? Keeping poking the Western bear in the backside. Nothing gets us going like reverse cheerleading.

You'd still be subject to the warlords if it wasn't for one American, Wild Bill Donovan from Buffalo, NY. He'd roll in his grave at Communist Chinese arrogance and folly.

Anyway, your first contact for Haiti for players would be these folks.

http://www.cfihaiti.net/j10/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=63&Itemid=117

Since MINUSTAH.org sorted things out, the business climate is superb. Their central bank has 500 mil in inactive reserves, and mining is one of their priorities now. Massaide prefecture is where the rare earth resources are sited, and it would take Rio Tinto or another group about ten minutes over drinks at the Hotel Montana (http://www.mtmontana.com) to sort things out.

I highly recommend their domestic rums, and life's not complete without having savoured a Jacmel cigar. If you like the works of Rousseau le Douanier updated and done by Haitian artists trained in Paris or Montreal ateliers, there are at least 20 galleries from which to choose.

Now that Haiti can also export finished textile goods, I wonder if the good folk who still make Harris tweed might wish to branch into subcontracting assembly there for duty-free entry of finished goods into the USA and Canada?

Blew the deal there in 2004, but I'll be there again in December during the slightly breezy season.

@ deadgirl,
While following your exact remarks towards many of the commentators it looked to me like slim chinese girl is swiftly punching a group of overweight over-tatooed thugs, spreading them flat on walls with every karate kick! Wow!

Michael Anthony

You call that personal? No no, Panda only got paid handsomely to get anything personal. Is that simple? Come on, I meant cognitive intelligence, not emothional one, boy.

Talking about getting paid, red back USD or Darling�s Pound are worthless. Only Fort Knox glod bars, certicified by Fed�s Ben, trasactioned via Bank of England, paid pre post is acceptable. Btw, how much you get paid? I might consider jumping ship if the price tag is right.

1. Paid to post; 2. Mao�s red guard; 3. CCP brainwashed

This is what Panda dubbed as Survival Triology Manual for beginners in blogosphere. 1 buck per copy; buy two, one comes free. It seems that you are a bit short, Michael?

Get rid off Chinese PhD studs in the UK? Hehe, you are rubbing salts into the wound to destroy one of a few multi-billion pound indutries that the UK still has. Probably the rioters from your Education Export Industry would get you hanged at nearest place available because of that. Free market capitalism is realy confusing, huh? But be brave, young lad, you can still hold on your �real knowledge� centificate ( also �A� level I presume ? ) on your way there. No no, not this tree. That one is better to suppot body weights.

Last word, Mike? What? Fake panda coins? What are you talking about? You must work for Antique Roadshow, right?



Aitrader

To equate 80�s Japan to 21st century China shows clearly that you understand neither of them.



Walt O'Brien

Hong Kong and Taiwan have been the two biggest investors across fields in mainland China for decades since day 1. Any idea what percentage of people in Taiwan acturally live in China mainland?

What s honour! And their �sacrifice� has already been vindicated. Wakkie, wakkie.

@DC

All the factual information I have stated are in the public domain. You just need to do a bit more reading.

I know most of you westerners are probably very angry at my comments but the truth is sometime, very painful to hear. I don't hate westerners. I've been to your countries and found you to be a very generous and fun loving people but you do have this air of superiority and entitlement that is very irksome. It's not just us Chinese who think of you like this. Go to any non western country and you'll find the same feelings towards you.

@aitrader

The difference between us and the Japanese is that they used to brag that they could by three USA's for the cost of one Japan. We, regrettably, already own the USA. You owe us more than 1 trillion dollars. Your desperate attempts to inflate yourselves out of your debt obligation by printing money is going to have its consequences.

Ambrose, if this is any help, the father of the Ambassador to Canada for Haiti, the Honourable Robert Tippenhauer, did an in-depth and authoritative mineral and geological survey of Haiti some years back, and they are loaded with the entire range of rare earth minerals and platinum, gold, silver, etc. If someone in need of these minerals wants to do a deal, Mr. Tippenhauer and the Canadian Governor-General (she is of Haitian origin) can fix up whoever needs to re-source for product.

The new regime meets all criteria for proper dealing and transparent accounting to GAAP, both Continental and NA traceable standards.

Wilfred St. Jean, Ing. is the Directeur Executif for the bureau des mines et d l'energie.

Drop me an e-mail and I'll plug you in or anyone else who is a player.

Plotz on communist China. Hold on, Hong Kong and Taiwan, your honour and sacrifice will one day be vindicated.

I spent 1986-1987 living and studying in Japan. The pro-Chinese comments here are vary familiar. At the time I was there the Japanese liked to brag that they could by three USA's for the cost of one Japan due to the real estate "boom". You could strike the word China from many of the above comments and replace it with Japan and we would be back to the Japanese debates of the mid-1980's.

All countries who rise from misery and poverty, as China is doing now, go through this megalomaniaical process. Then they suffer a reality check and find out they are subject to the same rules that govern economics everywhere else.

Jon - "The largest province is just over 115m"

That's if you go by office figures. It's a little know fact outside of China that China has not had a one child policy for years. Those who are registered as living in the country side are permitted to have a second child if the first child is a girl. Therefore, many migrant workers do not re-register when they move to the cities to work.

marcus - "Educatin is born to a freedom society, not to restrictive b**kw**d chain gang society"

It's a real shame then you don't appear to have made the most of it. English isn't my first language but shouldn't it be 'Education is born from a free society' and not 'Educatin is born to a freedom society?' Ask the average western Joe where China is and he'll likely say it's in the kitchen.

"who desperately plunder at will to sneaking secrets and patents from West."

The very foundation of Western civilisation is built on the plundered ideas and inventions of Chinese so don't even go there my friend.

Michael Anthony - "It may well become necessary for nations to impose tariffs on Chinese made goods. You state that this would make consumer goods prohibitively expensive to westerners. Actually, what would happen is that Western companies would shift production of goods from China to elsewhere. Thus China's manufacturing base would collapse. China is, after all, the world's sweatshop for outsourcing. If you think the West will sit back and let China dominate then you have another thing coming."

Why would our manufacturing base collapse if we will have a single market of 1.3 billion consumers instead of the measly 940 million western consumers? You may have a higher per capita income, but that was all borrowed from us anyway. You may shift production to other countries but will they have a large enough and well educated enough workforce to be able to manufacture the goods to the prices your are used to? I wouldn't rely on India replacing us. They're society is divided and mostly illiterate.

In the years to come, you will need us more than we will need you. Time to put that western arrogance in it's place.

Panda@War.
No need to get personal, lad. You sound worried, old chap. So your beloved China is not prone to the same market forces that the rest of us are prone to? Please, play the other one.

The propaganda machine of the PRC is alive and well. Just like the Russian one was after the South Ossetian conflict. And you are paid by whom? And how much are you paid? In dollars, pounds, euros or RMB?

It's time to get those PRC PhD students out of our academic institutions, I say. Time for an end to your intellectual theft. That would be a bummer for your country, though we've not let you become proxy to the real information we have, though have we?

I must say, it is not a typical Chinese trait to overstate ones situation. Free market capitalism confusing things, old boy?

Interesting times, old chum. By the way, how many Panda silver and gold coins are counterfeit? A great deal are and, therefore, we in the West can't trust your silver and gold holdings. How ironic.

Regards.

All of these materials are available in limitless quantities in space- other planets and asteroids

It�s been a while since Panda took a look at DT comment section. No surprise though, still stink as ever on average.

Michael Anthony, since you are nearest, please allow Panda stimulate a bit your cognitive intelligence as you came across like an economic illiterate, or more politely, a typical housewife from Coronation Street.

You chanted: �what would happen is that Western companies would shift production of goods from China to elsewhere�China is, after all, the world's sweatshop for outsourcing.�

Yes, genius, talking hot air is cheap. Ask yourself why not do it? Panda advices that you can bet your sweet mama that it can�t be done!

It is because a business decision is not a simple linear function of labour cost only. Far beyond that, it is a decision based on dozens and more combined key factors of the whole value chain, and its strategic business nature. Many countries have manufactuing costs fat below China�s, say India, which is at least 80% cheaper; or why not set up a shop in bottom cost Zimbabuwe, or Morroco?

Labour cost is only a small part of the full picture. Energy, raw materials, finance, tax, govt red tap, the quality, efftiveness and capacities of industrial facilities of road, rail, air and sea ports, labours� learning curve of knowhow and capability of swift upgrade, whole logistics chain development state, geo locations and completeness of other spare parts of the goods� suppliers, size of doemstic market, moves of main competitors/and their products, corresponding local market�s suppliments, proximity to the goods�design, R&D centers, size of economy of scales, etc. etc.etc� all these factors, together with their very own underlying sub-value chains decide where is the best palace on earth to manufacture goods.

All factors considered, every roads lead to China. The US can�t do it; neither ANY of EU state and nor ANY other developing country gets even close.

China becomes global manufactuing hub is because China becomes global BUSINESS Hub, you fool. It is the latter that foremost decides and attracts investments strategically in along run!

Think about any product, not only toys, clothes, funitures, steel, as you�ve been told by media on daily basis, but also copnsumer luxuary products, computers, all kinds of high-end electronics, industrial production machines, industrial machine tools, cars, trucks, trains, ships, airplanes, etc, etc, virtually every single thing spings to your mind, its manufactuing hub AND its businees hub is China, BECAUSE its current largest end market , or its imminent protential largest end market, is China!

This is why, my dear little friend.

China has attracted $ 800 billions or so FDI in the past several decades. But make no mistake, junior, that more than 70% of that amount, together with management knowhow, is coming from worldwide ethnic Chinese businesses, from HongKong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, the US, etc., not from your self-flattered westners!

Chinese are �sweatshops�and �slaves� ? Hehe, do not dilute yourself to such a pathetic state, my friend . Historically, manufactoring capability has always been the exclusive symbol of the superpower (under its industry scope) of the time. We were the ancient superpower when we were the �sweatshop� for our own market; Britain was �sweatshop�of the world in the 19th century, followed by the US in the 20th.. No pain, no gain, and we Chinese know what to take to reach there. Yes, you average westners are enjoying the benefits of China currently, while demeaning China and Chinese on the other hand out of pure jealosy and unfounded fear, instead of saying a big �Thank You, China, for improving my lifestyle�. It won�t last that long however. DO it while you still have a nickle left in your pocket.

We Chinese are making the goods because we are making the history at the same time.

Good news for Tanzania, though. They'll have to form up a regiment along the lines of the redcoats with Martini-Henry's in "Zulu" but Tanzanians instead to deal with human wave attacks of incoming commodities traders and mining company executives.

I think its great news, now we will have to start spending serious money on asteroid mining, which means we can at last start to spread out into the solar system - bring it on - wonder which corporation is going to be the first to take the momentous step and start building asteroid mining ships.

And no this is not Sci-fi, all the technology exists to do this, it just needs the right push to get money poured into it.

Marcus:
> In a decade, India will ride to the rescue and swat Mao and Co aside.


No. In a decade, half of India will finally come into the 18th century, 1/4 into he 19th and 1/4 in the 16th century.
Maybe - 5 million will be in the 21th century

Deadgirl. You come across as a nasty piece of work. China has its own problems with clean water, sustainable agriculture and the food supply, the environment, demographics, and politics, to name a few, and a bright future is not assured.

China is well off being able to rely solely on its internal markets considering the poor state of its GDP per capita. Chinese consumers just don't yet have the means to fuel a consumer boom. In effect, they are slaves.

It may well become necessary for nations to impose tariffs on Chinese made goods. You state that this would make consumer goods prohibitively expensive to westerners. Actually, what would happen is that Western companies would shift production of goods from China to elsewhere. Thus China's manufacturing base would collapse. China is, after all, the world's sweatshop for outsourcing. If you think the West will sit back and let China dominate then you have another thing coming.

I wish you interesting times, Deadgirl.

Deadgirl with a superiority complex and axe, Hmmm?

Reference the purported educational level of the average westerner?
Educatin is born to a freedom society, not to restrictive b**kw**d chain gang society -
who desperately plunder at will to sneaking secrets and patents from West.

In a decade, India will ride to the rescue and swat Mao and Co aside.

Peace!

Deadgirl-

Population of USA roughly = 300m

Europe = 590m

Australia = 20m

Canada = 30m

Total = 940m

The largest province is just over 115m.

Wanna bet that in 10 year's time we will have found replacements for most of the materials talked about in the article and China will look very stupid sitting on a pile of rapidly-depreciating metals? Some people never learn.

Wouldn't it stand to reason that if we implemented a 50% tariff on Chinese goods that the price of most items at Walmart would increase by the same 50%??? Aren't all costs typically passed on to the consumer??? How will that benefit the US economy???

Face it... we screwed ourselves... we attempted to quickly elevate the standard of living in America through cheap goods rather than taking the long-term approach through hard work... and the Chinese are capitalizing on our short-sightedness.

Most westerners are still under the delusion that we Chinese still need you to survive. It's been pretty obvious over the last couple of years that we have to turn our economy to serve our internal market and not rely on now bankrupt western markets. All that money you lot were spending and feeling so superior about were ours anyway. Go ahead, slap on 50% or even 100% tariffs and the only people that will be hurt will be yourselves. That Iphone you all so love will be so expensive, you'll have to sell your kids to own one. We may then sell a lot less to you but our own internal market (once fully exploited) will be more than enough to fill that gap. It will be painful for a while but we Chinese can take it. In case you lot didn't know (highly likely considering the educational level of the average westerner), the combined population of the USA, Canada, Australia and Europe is still less than the population of one of our medium size provinces.

C M:
I'd rather live without all these stupid gadgets and go gracefully when the time comes.
Life is more pleasant without them.

when you are grasping your heart and taking your last breath you will then realize just how valuable these gadgets are.

while the West sleeps the Chinese dragon is slowly (maybe not so slowly)destroying and undermining economy.. and taking over the world.... I feel sorry for our kids... our leaders in the west are a bunch of wimps.. time to finally take a hard stand against the communists.. if they do not revalue the yuan then slap 50% duty on their exports... we're giving it all away folks... wake up and smell the coffee !!!!!!!!!

The argument has nothing to do with morality but national interest. Its in Chinese national interests they think to control export (they are behaving like a 17th/18th century mercantilist country, or even like medieval England when Edward 3rd banned the export of wool to develop the native cloth industry.

Its clear China has no belief in international co-operation and mutual benefit, so clearly we need to ensure we are able to fight China to protect our national interests and we had better start soon before its too late.

So we should start with trade barriers and start breaking china's growing monopolies in all kinds of manufacture. It would take very little to wreck China's economy which is far more fragile than the West believes. By raising barriers on manufactured goods, selectively to protect key industries, we can re-grow our own wrecked industries and start to rebalance the global trade imbalances. The stabilisation of the British and American economies will make us less vulnerable to global credit shocks and less vulnerable to threats from regimes such as China.

Sadly the europeans are too stupid and cowardly to do anything, and anyway, Germany makes all its money from the present trade imbalances

At the same time we need to develop new technology to replace these precious metals, and we need to better protect our ideas a from the Chinese and others.

If China can't move away form its mercantilist ideas then we need to break it before they break us.

This is wonderful news.
The world will be a much nicer place without all these gadgets.

Ambrose E-P may have some specialist technical details wrong, but, as usual, he has highlighted a lurking economic trend.

So, PACE (for the benefit of you "know-alls", that is Latin) detractors!

Keep it up Ambrose!

Or a potato famine, Alan from Galway.

Just as we interveined in Irak to secure oil. Why do you think were really in Afganistan.

This is more interesting when put in context: i.e. why do the chinese want to control supply?
It pretty clearly shows that they think the next big tech shift will be electric cars (via hybrids) and associated green tech. David Allen, you are right about Neodymium not being useful at high temp, but try making an efficent permanent magnet motor (or generator etc.) without it...
This is, I suspect, why China is seeking to dominate supplies: in order to be the key player in the coming clean tech boom as AEP has stated before.
The key economic question is, since no one in the west cares about manufacturing anymore anyway, does this strictly matter? You'll just be stuck buying Chinese tech in future, but isn't that the case already anyway?

No surprise that some of the comments below are thinly disguised xenophobia. When you guys in the west act to protect your future interests then it's all good and fair but when China does the same then we're being evil. Give me a break. Your hypocrisy is so transparent, it's laughable.

The future lies in organics, which can be tuned to produce almost all the required properties. Think of all the different chemistries in the human body, from muscle, to nerve, to bone tissue.

Now it's time to act. It's time to transfer funds to science. It's time to use our brain. Yes we can!

I am afraid that power lines would have their resistance, not friction lowered by the use of super-conductors.

In the last depression it took 20 odd years to get back to heights before it, now with China's protectionism we are looking at far loger time scale.

They are converting their dollars without strenghthening the yaun thereby rebalancing trade.

Confusious says first ruin western economies by undercutting their industries, then deny them the resouces to recover - brilliant stratagy!

All achieved by having a currency that is 50% undervalued!!!!

This article merely reinforces the ultimate nastiness of the vile Chinese committern and the utter folly of Krudd brown-nosing Beijing.

Australia should be building up its nuclear industry not exporting uranium to these thugs.

Another Chinese ploy to get rid of its US Dollar reserves. The last few months have seen them carefully converting billions of dollars into precious metal reserves, as American embassies around the world exchange big dollars for local currencies. Don't believe the hype - there will be no recovery this time.

The mine is in the NT not WA. The name Arafura rather gives it away.

they'll trade the rare metals for oil and gold and iron ore. is this the iron age trading

I guess the point Ambrose is making (albeit not technically perfect for the science boffins out there) is that this Government Development plan in China does potentially have some serious consequences for world trade. Denying/ hoarding such materials may be met with punishing quotas on Chinese finished goods in the US, for example. Ambrose has previously made the point that this GFC risks escalating if restrictive trade barriers are imposed. This might well be one such an example. China would be playing with fire.

Naturally, as Bernanke keeps printing dollars, the value of every commodity begins to rise. And as commodities rise in price, worldwide inflation will return. One can not print dollars on paper forever and expect to fool the world forever.

China is not the only Nation Rich in Rare Elements(metals)! Some just stock dont advertise it!

This will cement Australia's position as a global energy superpower. Adding rare earth metals to our Iron Ore, Gold, Aluminium, Gas and Uranium exports makes us one of the more important nations on earth.

the article did not distinguish Heavy Rare Earths from Light Rare Earths. Avalon Rare Metals from Canada is the ONLY source for the more valuable and strategic HRE's outside of China.

Dinoz,
Lynas (LYC,AU) does not currently mine REEs. They started to build their production facilities in both Mt Weld (Australia) and their refining facilities in Malaysia, however in the GFC their funding got pulled, so they put their construction on hold. They are currently negotiating with CNMC for an equity investment and further loan facilities.

How wrong can you be?

And AEP, Arafura's rare earth project is in the Northern territory in Australia, not WA. Their head office is in WA.

choice

What price wilderness? The US has greatly restricted mining and mineral exploitation for several decades now as a sop to environmental protesters, confidant it could source all its needs more cheaply outside the US. Looks like that strategy may be due for a change.

I wonder if these elements/metals are to be found in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter - would be an added spur to the space race if they are.

"... the smallest known metal-rich asteroid -- Amun 3554, about one kilometer in
diameter, contains 3.5 trillion dollars' worth of cobalt, nickel, iron and platinum."

-- from Seeing in the Dark by Timothy Ferris

"The move to horde reserves" perhaps Mr Evans-Pritchard was thinking of the Mongolian Hordes.

Lynas (ASX:LYC) in Australia already mines and exports rare earth material.This article seems to say that it will be years before Australia gets it's rare earths on line. How wrong can you be?

Well, they are thrilled to sell the world cheap goods and often pirated at that.

They have always avoided selling important assets and have always maintained the yen at a level that has helped to ensure that trade balances always benefit China.

If a national commodity becomes rare enough, it is in China's character to always protect its own resources.

Unlike many, many nations. Sad but true

Time to study our options. Perhaps a Revolutionary Government on our side might be able to sidestep our tradtional limitations in a response to what is clearly an insidious Chinese plot to Rule the World. Remember all those Looney Left pro-Mao college students running around in the 1970's and 1980's--they're now the Ruling Elites in the West.

Another mis-informed, ill-conceived article from AEP.

I would suggest he stay away from any subject that is faintly technical or scientific... or economic for that matter.

This could have been an interesting article if the whole thesis about an imminent shortage of all these "rare metals" wouldn't be based on testimony of some Australian miner called Alistair Stephens. And guess which business Mr. Stephens is in? Rare metals!!! This must be nothing more than a pure coincidence...

China's Dollar reserves built up over decades of hard work have been exceeded by the amount the FED has created at the stroke of a pen or mouse.

I understand China have kept their currency low but for the west to cry foul is ludicrous.

They have stuff we have paper.

Unfortunately, since these metals are absolutely needed, many countries including the US and EU will likely consider this an act of economic war. Where this leads is frightening indeed.

China's Dollar reserves built up over decades of hard work have been exceeded by the amount the FED has created at the stroke of a pen or mouse.

I understand China have kept their currency low but for the west to cry foul is ludicrous.

They have stuff we have paper.

maybe unavoidable in an article about unusual materials but several mistakes.

Neodymium does nothing to enhance magnetic force at high temperatures the exact opposite in fact.

Neo magnets are extremely powerful at low temperatures but fail at higher temperatures unles expensive materials such as cobalt are added.

Might have been informative to add that "rare-earth" is a name rather than a description of their rarity as they are currently mined in quantities of hundreds of thousands of tonnes, albeit mostly in the PRC.

Time for another Opium war!