Low Pressure Area Over Honduras Now Has 70% Chance Of Becoming Cyclone, Second Area Over Leeward Islands Monitored

The National Hurricane Center has identified a low pressure area developing over Honduras, which is now expected to become a tropical depression shortly as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula, and has a 70% chance of becoming a full-blown tropical cyclone as it heads into the Gulf of Mexico. And just to keep things real, there is a second storm farther out east, which currently has a 10% chance of becoming a cyclone. Keep an eye on those BP shares.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST COAST OF HONDURAS AND GRAND CAYMAN CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING...AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS FORMED.

2. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/low-pressure-area-over-honduras-now-has-70-chance-becoming-cyclone-second-area-over-leeward-