Everyone has their own set of absolute definate facts to back up what they (know?) about where we will wind up with this play, as do I.
My absolute definate analysis of SPQ is that CLF knows they will have to take them out. If you go back and project the game as it was played for FWR, they are going to come out of the gate with an 8 cent offer. They will fully understand that they will eventually have to up it to 12 cents, and that is where it will settle. The only thing that could throw a wrench into the works is if another party steps up to the table. The only possibility at the moment would seem to be NOT, but why would they. However even with a counter bid from others the short term high is going to be 15 cents, but in the same fashion that FWR accepted 1.00, so shall SPQ accept the 12 cents.
All in my humble opinion
Best regards
K