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Message: Been awhile.

Re: Been awhile.

in response to by
posted on Oct 29, 2009 11:54PM

Ryan,

Your doggies are sweet.

I'm really sorry to hear you had such a rough time in the markets. It may not make you feel any better, but your story is shared by many. I've had several friends who got killed trading, only one is still doing it.

I've suffered a couple of near portfolio death experiences myself, but managed to crawl back from the abyss to play another day. When I first started trading (1998), I had the misfortune of having beginner's luck. Made me think it was easy, and set me up for a fall. I soon got to the shellshock level, but somehow I muddled through. Lots of ups and downs later, I learned the key to survival in this business is proper money management. Without that, all success is fleeting, all gains can be easily lost.

Regarding the stocks you mentioned, I know nothing about their fundamentals - I am a pure technical trader. I first tried trading on fundamentals without success, eventually I learned to trade technically. For me, it just works better. I think I can make a good argument why, but that's for another time.

I've noticed a few of your stocks had massive gains before they crashed. Crashes are common for stocks that spike up. I would never buy a stock soon after a massive run up - just too risky. If I happen to own a stock that goes up like this, I sell bits of it on the way up - one of my money management techniques (don't let one stock become too much of your portfolio). Anything that goes parabolic, I sell as soon as ot breaks the immediate uptrend. For example, that would have been around .45 for AZG, 1.50 for DEC, .40 for MTB, and .10 for EAR.

Most of these stocks currently look terrible technically, but MAY have bottomed. In case they haven't, I would sell DEC and MTB if they sink below yesterday's low, because there is not much support after that. The only one near support is EAR - I might even buy that one for that reason.

NRD looks good, but except today, it's a thin trader - you might want to try to catch it on a pullback (.45-.47).

I think the market is in correction mode and should bottom around mid-November. Then, I believe (hope?) we will have a nice run up into January, especially in the juniors. But you have to buy a basket of them or consider buying the new junior ETF when it comes out.

Good luck, & I will email you.

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