Gold's record-breaking climb to over $1,100 an ounce unsurprising

Jeffrey Nichols believes that many market participants, particularly in India, but also throughout the region, have reassessed gold`s price potential following the Reserve Bank of India`s 200-ton purchase.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Wednesday , 11 Nov 2009

SANTIAGO -

Jeffrey Nichols, specialist precious metals analyst and also Senior Economic Advisor to Rosland Capital LLC, a U.S. precious metals asset management company, reckons that the latest gold price high is good news for gold and gold investors. In a release from Rosland, Nichols is quoted as saying "It`s important to take into account the activity in the international marketplace that has led this run and caused a near perfect storm for gold".

"First, came the announcement from the Reserve Bank of India that it had purchased 200 tons of IMF gold, and the additional statement from the Sri Lankan Central Bank that it had been purchasing gold in the open market during the past few months.

"This was followed mid-week with announcements first from the U.S. Federal Reserve, then from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, that the industrial world`s monetary policies would remain extraordinarily accommodative for an extended period of time.

"Then on Friday came news that October`s U.S. unemployment index had jumped four-tenths of a percent to a 26-year high of 10.2%, greatly exceeding expectations of a much smaller increase - indicating that the economy is weaker than most had believed.

"Put the news together and it should come as no surprise that gold briefly broke through the $1,100 on Friday - and has shown further strength this morning trading near $1,110 an ounce in Asian, European, and New York markets." says Nichols.

"It is encouraging that key Asian markets have quickly adjusted to higher price levels. A few months ago, with gold in the $970 to $1,000 range, Indian gold demand stalled while scrap supplies from the resale of old gold jewelry surged. Now, Indian demand remains firm and there has, as of yet, been no big reflow of old gold back to the market. And, buying interest is up in other Asian gold-trading centers. It looks like many market participants, particularly in India, but also throughout the region, have reassessed gold`s price potential following the Reserve Bank of India`s 200-ton purchase.

"Nevertheless, after such an impressive run-up, don`t be surprised if gold takes a breather, perhaps selling off a bit on profit taking, and consolidating in a trading range between $1,070 and this week`s new all-time high. One thing that could quickly lift gold - at any time - into still-higher territory would be

news of another major central bank taking up more of the IMF gold on offer." reckons Nichols.

As reported on Mineweb in the past, Nichols has been bullish on gold for some time and the latest moves in price confirm his analysis.

What is particularly interesting about the recent move though is the immediate price behavior which is very reminiscent of what happened when gold burst through the $1,000 level only a couple of weeks ago. Initially it tested moving lower but then held above what seemed to have become a new base level for the gold price, before consolidating at these levels, and then taking another sharp step upwards. On the evidence of immediate trading at or around the $1,100 level it looks as though the same pattern is being followed, which could suggest, if this pattern is maintained, that $1,100 may be becoming the new base which could now make $1,200, or perhaps higher, as the new target for the year.

As Nichols points out, should there be news of another major Central Bank gold purchase this target could be reached extremely quickly. At the moment the gold price has some momentum working for it. With enough uncertainty continuing in financial markets regardless of the relatively strong performance of major stock market indices, the interest in gold as a financial insurance policy is likely to continue. This underpins the price, and leaves it open for more sharp gains on positive news for the sector. If eastern markets are indeed accepting the new price levels then the current price become even more secure.