A Technical Summary
posted on
Nov 14, 2009 05:27PM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
I heard all sorts of reasons for yesterday’s decline of 94 points by the DJIA (10197.47), 18 points by the NASDAQ (2149.02), and the 11-point slide by the S&P 500. The reasons for the price weakness ranged from a lackluster bond auction to a bearish petroleum inventories update and a stronger U.S. dollar. Could it have been as easy as an overbought condition [the Oversold – Overbought oscillator stood at + 6.9 Wednesday night (+ 5 and above is “overbought”), last night’s close = + 4.0], the fact that the Russell 2000 (580.32) was turned back at its flattening 50-DMA (resistance), or an intraday breakdown by the S&P 500, as shown below? Very near-term “gap support” for the SPX = 1072.31 to 1071.48. What about the negative price, breadth, and momentum non-confirmations that have yet to be favorably resolved and are “being felt” by many individual stocks? In any event, volume on the NYSE marginally expanded to 1.05 billion shares. There were 1,825 net declining issues, a horrible figure.
Chart courtesy of Thomson Reuters
Current Trends (short-term):
Style Size: “Dollars” are flowing out of small cap and into large cap. The S&P Small Cap 600 Index is exhibiting the weakest relative strength amongst stock market indices, followed by the S&P Mid Cap 400 Index.
S&P 500 (1087.24): Multi-week trading range. Selling pressure = 1101 – 1105, buying interest = 1036 – 1029.
Russell 2000 (580.32): Lower peaks – lower troughs. Buying interest = 553. A breakdown at 552 would be ugly.
DJ Transports (3937.84): Lower troughs. Selling pressure = 4055 – 4066, buying interest = 3600, 3546.50.
DJ Utilities (370.69): Awful relative strength. Selling pressure = 380, 387 – 389, buying interest = 361- 359.
Volatility Index (24.24): Neutral. No concern until VIX starts trending higher. Selling pressure exists just below 32.
Investor Sentiment (Bull-Bear newsletter advisory figures): Recent shift shows a positive increase in skepticism.
10-Year Yield Index (TNX/34.47 = 3.447%): Neutral. A close over 35.79 would equate to higher short-term interest rates.
US Dollar Index (75.49): Very short-term trading range developing. Selling pressure = 76.50, 77.50, buying interest = 75 - 74.85.
Gold ($1106.70): Overbought - would benefit from a pullback closer to $1080-1070. Initial target fulfilled, secondary target over $1300. Gold is acting better than the stocks.
Crude Oil ($76.94): Within an uptrend, very short-term action is sloppy. Short-term selling pressure = $81–82 and $85, buying interest = $75-73.16, $71.60 (incomplete uptrend line).
Natural Gas ($4.37): A move under $4.23 support would pressure the current short-term uptrend. Selling pressure = $5.27-5.31.