Uraniums
posted on
Dec 10, 2009 08:52AM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
There is conflicting analysis about uraniums. BMO just came out with the following which I find a bit unbelievable but here it is none the less.....feel oversupply is in the works:
"Having conducted a detailed supply/demand and cost analysis, BMO Research estimates that the uranium market is about to enter a period of oversupply. BMO Research views the uranium space more cautiously than previously and is downgrading spot uranium share price forecasts, which impact the valuations and target prices of stocks under coverage. Supply from outside the West is proving more price elastic than previously forecast: the high uranium prices of 2006/2007 have stimulated a supply-side response with a greater amount of supply coming on at lower marginal costs. On the basis of estimated marginal production costs, BMO Research has lowered the 2010 spot price to US$45/lb from US$55/lb, and the long-term price forecast to US$50/lb from US$60/lb. Reflecting the reduced outlook for uranium, BMO is downgrading Cameco to Market Perform with a reduced target price of C$30 and reducing the target prices of Denison Mines to C$1.35 and Paladin Energy to C$3.80." On the otherside of the spectrum from Outstanding Investments which has a good track record is the following: "Another of my discussion partners here in London was (and is) entirely bullish on uranium. This fellow, an Australian with decades of mining experience - - and the personal wealth to show for it - - showed me a chart of new nuclear power plants going up around the world. No surprise, China was pockmarked with sites for future nukes. He said ' Current world uranium production is about 100 millionpounds per year. Current world uranium usage is about 200 million pounds. The missing uranium is made up from decommissioned nuclear bombs from the Cold War. That's ending. Uranium is in shortage, and it's getting worse every month. Thus, uranium mining is due for a future boom.' With a uranium boom coming, big guys like Cameco (CCJ) should get more valuable. However, a complany like Cameco is well known in the investment space. Cameco will doOK, but some companies will do much better." However, he did not list them as he ran a tease for his investment newsletter, Energy & Scarcity Investor. So my blogger friends, WHAT SAY YOU? Does anyone have any other research they care to share?