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Message: Re: ummmm dumb question but...

Dec 12, 2009 07:37PM

Dec 12, 2009 07:50PM

Dec 12, 2009 09:27PM

OK, I have been trading TBT for a while. When it was between 50 and 60 I took a lot of profit via short calls and some vertical spreads. I made quite a bit of money.

TBT was down for a few months now. In between, I hold on to my core position of 1000 shares of TBT. Over the last few months, I had credited cash from expirations of short calls and naked puts at least about 5 times. Thus my cost for holding TBT now is very low. It has to drop below 25 before I will lose money. I placed my short calls and naked puts based on resistance and support. On naked puts, I am prepared to take ownership of the shares if assigned. For short calls, you have to be a little more careful. You do not want it to be assigned or go ITM ( In the money ) because my goal is to benefit for a bullish run of TBT. I do not want to be cut short on my profit if it is assigned.

However, if it goes ITM, you might as well let it get assigned since you make you maximum profit and start a new bullish trade. But that is not my intention. My goal is to wait for TBT to shoot up eventually. So if it is close to assignment, I will roll the short call up in strike and out in time when it is near expiration. But so far, I did not need to take such actions. It has been trading in a range. This is the best situation.

For the last expiration in November, I had both short puts and short calls expired and took the credits. Now, I am holding just the stock. I am waiting to see if the recent bullish move is for real. If yes, I will not add any short calls and try to leverage from the bullish direction. If it starts to show signs or weakness, I will then add my short call again. If it shows some signs of breaking down technically, I will add protective puts. This act as insurance that I will not lose my profit. If it goes back up, I may lose some money but that's fine. At least I know I am always protected. I will sell my puts if I am wrong. Though I am convinced of the trend but I am not locked into it. The market can be irrational longer than you think.

Above may not make sense to you. But it has been a profitable strategy for me. My objective is clear : I am waiting for TBT to to go up quickly. I believe it is a matter of time - that's why I am holding on to the stock. Meanwhile, if it is trading in a range, I will make money from short calls, short puts and verticals.

I am buying time for the day of reckoning when TBT starts to go wildly up again. It is a matter of time this ETF will make you a lot of money. Just need patience and time to be on your side. While waiting, make some money from the trading range. Turn the volatility to your advantage.


Dec 12, 2009 11:34PM

Dec 12, 2009 11:52PM

Dec 13, 2009 07:30AM

Dec 13, 2009 10:21AM

Dec 14, 2009 02:29AM
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