short article...is the party over
posted on
Dec 23, 2009 11:52AM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
“The equity party is over,” according to Institutional Investor magazine. Julie Segal’s article in the current issue says we’re witnessing the end to a 25-year bender in which Wall Street grew drunk on stocks.
As Segal tells it, the investment profession hooked an entire generation on the notion that stocks would always perform better than other investments and hence should always be the centre of any portfolio. This intoxicating faith in equities led investors to chase hot stocks, worship money managers and tilt portfolios toward stocks and away from bonds.
We’re only now waking up to the morning after. Two brutal bear markets during the past decade have slapped some sense into investors. So has the ageing of the Baby Boom -- many people are now too old to have most of their portfolios in stocks. Bonds have suddenly emerged as the asset class everyone craves.
So what lies ahead? If Segal is right, the easy money days are over for Wall Street. Money managers in the United States typically reel in 1.5% annual fees to manage stock funds, but only 0.5% to oversee bond funds. Private equity investors may also face tougher times as it becomes more difficult to cash out of an investment by issuing stock.
But there is good news as well. Look for an even greater boom in infrastructure investing, because highways, sea ports and power plants offer the bond-like dependability that investors crave. Bond underwriters will also prosper as more and more companies turn to bonds as their primary financing vehicle. And don’t forget that the rush out of stocks may result in more bargains in the stock market. Ironically enough, the new aversion to stocks could help stocks to achieve much better returns in the decade ahead.