LET'S TAKE A TRIP INTO THE FUTURE.

This week, I'll take on the fool's errand of attempting to predict what will happen in 2010, based entirely on my own guesses. Unlike some hedge-fund managers, I have no secret sources feeding me information. And with that, I now open my hermetically sealed mayonnaise jar, which has been sitting on Funk & Wagnalls doorstep for only Karnak knows how long, and provide some prognostications:

1) IT spending booms. Driven by a pickup in the economy, highly improved server processors, the spread of virtualization technology and cloud computing (see page 19), and the PC refresh cycle, 2010 will be a big year for enterprise-computing companies. Oracle (ticker: ORCL), HP (HPQ), IBM (IBM) and the like should thrive.

2) PC Sales Soar. As we note in this week's Plugged In column, Avi Cohen of Avian Securities says that a PC boom is likely in 2010. I see 20% unit growth.

3) Microsoft has a big year. The Redmond giant is on something of a roll already, with good early results for Bing and Windows 7. In 2010, we'll see an Office upgrade, the closing of the Yahoo! (YHOO) deal, upgraded server applications and other products. The wildcard: the possibly early arrival of Windows Mobile 7. As the Wall Street Journal noted last week, the company is being clobbered in smartphones, and must quickly fix its mobile operating system or risk becoming a non-factor in the hottest tech market.

Star Turn: Tech companies -- cash-rich, fast-growing, hitched to capital spending -- lifted the NASdaq 43.9% in 2009, its best showing since 2003's 50% haul.

4) In smartphones, the rich get richer, and the poor get poorer. As demand keeps expanding, competition keeps intensifying. Apple (AAPL) introduces new iPhones, to the usual acclaim. Research In Motion (RIM) fends off the competition in the enterprise, and benefits from the IT spending pickup. Palm (PALM) disappoints, fueling takeover speculation. Nokia (NOK) loses more share, and its new version of Symbian doesn't impress; in desperation, it considers buying Palm. Motorola (MOT) improves, but the many versions of Android confuse consumers, and the recovery isn't as robust as some hope. Dell's (DELL) smartphones don't gain traction. It also considers buying Palm.
5) Intel (INTC) has a good year, driven by the strong PC growth, but faces tougher competition from new sources, particularly Qualcomm's (QCOM) Snapdragon processor, and chips based on designs from ARM Holdings (ARMH). In fact, QCOM and ARMH become more important Intel rivals than Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).

6) AOL sells off some pieces, then is acquired by Yahoo! or Microsoft. Microsoft replaces Google (GOOG) as AOL's search provider. AOL's access business is unloaded to EarthLink (ELNK) or United Online (UNTD), but AOL retains its brand name. More mergers: DirecTV (DTV) swallows Sirius XM (SIRI); MetroPCS (PCS) combines with Leap Wireless (LEAP); Electronic Arts (ERTS) makes a new run at Take-Two Interactive (TTWO); News Corp. (NWSA, Barron's parent) decides to sell MySpace, but finds few takers; Oracle buys Informatica (INFA).

7) IPOs don't increase much, and some prominent start-ups instead sell out; keep an eye on the Solyndra IPO, which could be a blockbuster that opens the door to other solar-company debuts. Google buys Twitter, drawing intense scrutiny from the Justice Department. Microsoft considers buying LinkedIn, but negotiations flounder over the conflicts from the company's stake in Facebook.

8) Steve Jobs steps down as Apple CEO, but remains chairman, and continues to play a key role. Tim Cook moves up to chief executive. Apple's tablet computer launches early in the year, as expected. With a carrier-subsidy model not unlike the iPhone's, it's an instant hit.

9) Hulu.com tries to charge for some content, but backs off when few consumers sign up. Comcast (CMCSA) and other cable providers push Web-based on-demand services hard. Comcast wins approval for its NBC Universal deal, after agreeing to sell some local NBC stations. Newspapers try but largely fail to get consumers to pay for content on the Web, and their woes deepen.

10) Oracle finally closes its acquisition of Sun (JAVA); in the aftermath it slashes thousands of jobs. But the hardware business turns out to be a useful asset; IT buyers appreciate the one-source shopping; the company gains share and the stock moves sharply higher.

And not least, the Eagles win the Super Bowl, at last, crushing the Colts. (A guy can dream, can't he?)

AH, TIME AGAIN FOR THE INSANITY of the Consumer Electronics Show, when 100,000-plus gadget-heads from around the globe gather in Las Vegas for a blizzard of simultaneous product announcements, conflicting press conferences and concurrent lavish parties. They do deals, wait in long cab lines, eat badly, drink too much, sleep too little and try to get a read on the next big things in tech.

Hard to know precisely what will unfold this week, but mobile devices should be the big story. New phones are likely to be unveiled by Palm, Motorola and others. There will be a host of new e-book readers; keep your eye on the QUE from start-up Plastic Logic. The netbook surge rolls on, aided by variants known as smartbooks -- generally Linux-based, with non-Intel processors, and offering handy features like instant on. Even now-mundane devices like cameras and camcorders will offer wireless connectivity. Also expect a host of new tablet-based PCs, taking advantage of special features in still-nascent Windows 7.

Expect a huge hoo-hah over 3D: DirecTV is supposed to launch the first 3D HDTV channel this week to capitalize on the huge number of 3D-capable televisions expected to be rolled out from Asian companies. Like to see people wearing 3D glasses? This will be the trade show for you.

Will Ford (F) steal the show? CEO Alan Mulally will deliver the Thursday morning keynote speech; he's expected to talk up Sync, the joint venture with Microsoft that is designed to basically make your car into a new computing platform. Ford and Microsoft have made Sync a hit with music lovers, but 2010 might be the year that it really takes off; imagine an app store for your Internet-connected car.

Ironically, the two most important gizmos won't be unveiled at the show. Tuesday, Google holds an Android-related event in Mountain View, and is expected to display its handset, probably dubbed the Nexus One (See The Trader, "2009 Sets the Stage…for What?") And in late January, Apple may launch the iTablet, iSlate, iThinkThereforeIAm, or whatever its tablet computer is called.

I'll be in Las Vegas most of next week. Look for an update from the show here in our next issue. Meanwhile, with my colleague Alexander Eule, I'll provide updates all week on my blog, Tech Trader Daily, at Barrons.com.