and then the flip side..comodities..lo...
posted on
Jan 26, 2010 12:03PM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
Tight production and huge demand growth from developing nations will keep the commodities supercycle going in the years ahead.
Author: Frank Holmes
Posted: Tuesday , 26 Jan 2010
SAN ANTONIO. -
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The biggest emerging economies have ambitious plans that require a greater share of the world's limited commodities. This trend is spurring profound and permanent disruptions in how these resources are allocated now and in the future. For investors, these disruptions present opportunities.
Simply put, an investment in natural resources is a vote of confidence in global economic growth.
Rapid urbanization and industrialization, better infrastructure and growing consumption in emerging markets are among the key themes in the global growth story. They are also key drivers in the rising demand for oil, steel, copper, cement and other resources.
Here are just a few of the many available data points to help gauge the scale of opportunity:
Commodities (as measured by the Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index) shot up 24 percent in 2009, the largest single-year increase since the early 1970s, and the International Monetary Fund projects that prices will keep rising this year due to emerging-markets demand and global economic recovery.
China's economic growth is often mentioned in the context of commodities prices and demand - indeed, China surprised many by growing its GDP at an 8 percent rate in 2009, with commodity-heavy infrastructure investment playing a major role.
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Less often discussed is China's rapidly growing middle class (chart). Estimates are that as many as 25 percent of Chinese - more people than the entire U.S. population - fall into this category now, with a doubling possible within the next decade. While most dramatic in China, it is also under way in India, Brazil and elsewhere. This rise of the "American Dream" in emerging nations is memorably portrayed in the Oscar-winning movie "Slumdog Millionaire."
This trend has huge implications for commodities. Wealthier people want a better lifestyle. That means more and better housing - in addition to the structure itself (cement, steel), that means more wiring for electricity (copper), more plumbing (copper, zinc) and more basic appliances (steel, copper and other metals).
They also want better transportation, as we've seen in China. In only 10 years, China has gone from being the world's 20th largest oil consumer to No. 2 behind the United States as a result of its accelerating shift from the bicycle to the car. Getting around also means more roads, more bridges, more airports, more and faster railroads - all of which add to commodities demand.
While demand is growing, the supply of many key commodities is not keeping pace.
It is increasingly difficult and costly to find and develop large new oil fields, and mining projects are often slowed down by environmental opposition and tighter regulatory requirements. Many promising new commodity sources are in countries with inadequate infrastructure and/or significant political risks.
Commodity supercycles typically last 20 to 25 years - the current supercycle began in 2000, so we are just at the halfway mark. A stress in the markets is that insufficient capital has been invested in resources in recent decades, while at the same time the world's population has doubled and there has been spectacular growth in the middle class. Any supply disruptions quickly lead to price spikes.