Watch UUP ($US dollar bull ETF) near the close. Right now it looks like it wants to go higher (increasing the odds of gold going lower), but if it slips later in the day, it may form a topping candle, increasing the possibility that the top for the $USD is in, and gold is bottoming. It's all just possibles & probables, but given you'd better be right if you play HGU, at least you'll want the odds on your side.