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Message: sinclair..gold action
By Jim Sinclair
Published: Yesterday by RssFeed
Published: Yesterday by RssFeed
View the original post at jsmineset.com...
February 11, 2010 12:45 PM
Dear CIGAs,
Gold put in a solid performance today slicing through the barrage of bullion bank selling centered near the $1,080 level and running all the way to the downtrending 20 day moving average before it halted. The sharp move higher came even as the Euro was knocked sharply lower which is quite positive for gold as it seems to indicate that gold is generating safe haven flows out of currency fears; something we have been hoping to see for some time now. The fact that the Dollar could not sustain its gains today is very telling. Unless the bulls can push the Dollar higher immediately, they are in real danger of losing downside support in the USDX on account of the extremely large number of stale long positions that have been built up in that market. Momentum to the upside has stalled so the bulls are going to have to impress right now to stem a counterattack by the bears. A technical washout in the Dollar will occur with a crack of 79.
Along that same line, the mining shares finally came back to life today. The surge in the HUI today took it above the 400 level and serves to confirm that it is indeed sold out for now having put in a double bottom near the 370 region. That level should hold on any subsequent moves lower if indeed these shares are set to resume their upward move. Its move higher turned its 10 day moving average higher which is also friendly and should encourage dip buying. Also, its session high cleared the 20 day moving average. If it can manage to close above that level, it would be most friendly. The next big test for the HUI will come somewhere near the vicinity of 418 -420.
Bellwether copper, had a very strong upside day today with its price move confirming a short term bottom and a swing in momentum over to the inflation camp and away from the deflation camp. You have to wonder if China has been active in the copper market the previous few days given the strong buying that has been present down near recent lows.
In general, commodities across the board were higher today, with the CCI, Continuous Commodity Index, now back above its ten day moving average.
Bonds are weaker but still have not fallen completely apart. They are trying to hang on to 117^00 for support for if they fail there, technicians will see that as a sell signal and attempt to take them down more sharply.
Today was a victory for the inflationist camp and a blow to the deflationists. Tomorrow is Friday and one never knows what a Friday will bring with all the pre-weekend book squaring especially coming in front of a holiday on Monday of next week. But for today, the friends of gold must be pleased.
Click chart to enlarge today’s hourly action in Gold in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini
February 11, 2010 12:45 PM
Dear CIGAs,
Gold put in a solid performance today slicing through the barrage of bullion bank selling centered near the $1,080 level and running all the way to the downtrending 20 day moving average before it halted. The sharp move higher came even as the Euro was knocked sharply lower which is quite positive for gold as it seems to indicate that gold is generating safe haven flows out of currency fears; something we have been hoping to see for some time now. The fact that the Dollar could not sustain its gains today is very telling. Unless the bulls can push the Dollar higher immediately, they are in real danger of losing downside support in the USDX on account of the extremely large number of stale long positions that have been built up in that market. Momentum to the upside has stalled so the bulls are going to have to impress right now to stem a counterattack by the bears. A technical washout in the Dollar will occur with a crack of 79.
Along that same line, the mining shares finally came back to life today. The surge in the HUI today took it above the 400 level and serves to confirm that it is indeed sold out for now having put in a double bottom near the 370 region. That level should hold on any subsequent moves lower if indeed these shares are set to resume their upward move. Its move higher turned its 10 day moving average higher which is also friendly and should encourage dip buying. Also, its session high cleared the 20 day moving average. If it can manage to close above that level, it would be most friendly. The next big test for the HUI will come somewhere near the vicinity of 418 -420.
Bellwether copper, had a very strong upside day today with its price move confirming a short term bottom and a swing in momentum over to the inflation camp and away from the deflation camp. You have to wonder if China has been active in the copper market the previous few days given the strong buying that has been present down near recent lows.
In general, commodities across the board were higher today, with the CCI, Continuous Commodity Index, now back above its ten day moving average.
Bonds are weaker but still have not fallen completely apart. They are trying to hang on to 117^00 for support for if they fail there, technicians will see that as a sell signal and attempt to take them down more sharply.
Today was a victory for the inflationist camp and a blow to the deflationists. Tomorrow is Friday and one never knows what a Friday will bring with all the pre-weekend book squaring especially coming in front of a holiday on Monday of next week. But for today, the friends of gold must be pleased.
Click chart to enlarge today’s hourly action in Gold in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini
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