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Message: silver info from David Morgan

silver info from David Morgan

posted on Mar 09, 2010 12:36PM

If you are interested in investing in silver and would like to know where the price is headed in the next decade, you can order David Morgan's report at (www.silver-investor.com) . It is the best report of its kind that I have come across.

Here is a sampling of David's report:

Investment demand: It is my much studied opinion that the real story and the most misrepresented on the silver market is the true investment demand for silver. The amount of investment demand for silver is considerably more than reported by any of the official studies.

Coin demand is 7% of the total demand. Investment demand is separate from coin demand which uses 2% of production.

First let's clarify the coin market report; taken as about 7% of the market we can determine that approximately 30-40 million ounces of silver is taken out of the market as official coins, such as the Silver Eagle, Silver Maple, Silver Philharmonic, and all no name (private mint) silver rounds (silver one-ounce medallions- serving as "coins" without a government mint marking). This number is accurate but the number that always seems to be missing (in the above chart, it is included) is the investment demand for commercial silver bars-the type of silver used in industry but held for investment purposes.

From the middle of 2006 when the ETF (namely, the SLV) began, we started with about 130 million ounces of silver in commercial bar form. But notice since that timeframe other ETFs have begun, and existing bullion investment companies such as Central Fund of Canada have continued to increase their holdings of silver.

If you study this carefully, you will be able to account for ALL the reported aboveground silver in commercial form. Remember, both of the most respected studies on silver tell us that 600 to 700 million ounces of silver exist in thousand-ounce bar form.

For the Comex, only about half of the holdings (~118 million ounces) is held for investment purposes. The other half, or 60 million ounces, is dealer inventory that is held against multiple short positions.

Notice that we have increased from the middle of 2006 at about 250 million ounces, to 600 million ounces at the end of 2009. This is an internal compounded rate of 18%. And 475 to 600 million a year later, meaning perhaps 125 million ounces of silver, were taken up as investment demand between the beginning of 2009 and the start of 2010. This is something you will not find in the mainstream press or any of the most recognized studies in silver. Yes, you may see a vague mention of it in some obscure way, but no one is going to be pounding the point home that maybe there is a "float" of 60 million ounces of commercial grade silver available in the entire world and that silver has multiple claims against it!

We can basically state that investment demand for silver in commercial form has been increasing at about 100 million ounces per year for the past three years. However, things have been leveling off the past few months.

There is nothing certain in the investment world, but everyone at this point should be asking the question, "What happens if the investment demand for silver in 2010 is 100 million ounces of physical and there is a float of only 60 million ounces available?" Would any of you want to be short the silver market at this point?

It would take roughly a billion dollars at today's silver price to corner that last remaining 60 million ounces of silver. Is someone thinking about this?

The silver market is poised for significant pressure to the upside over the next decade. The amount of increase in investment demand is the primary driver, as this writer has stated from the beginning of this bull market. Additionally, the rate of increase of industrial use is much greater than the rate of increase of silver production. However, the total amount of silver produced by 2020 could be near the 800-million-ounce mark, an increase of 150-200 million ounces. The amount of increase in industrial demand will be conservatively 250 million ounces by 2020.

The bottom line is that the physical silver supply is very tight at this moment in time and the market is poised to move up on any substantial buying pressure.

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