The news from Germany this morning wasn't helping the beleaguered euro any... German exports fell in January according to a report printed this morning. You may recall about a month or so ago, I told you how China had replaced Germany as the #1 exporter... Well, that difference between the two must be widening, given Germany's slumping exports, and China's 46% increase last month!

Hey! The rate hike campers here in the U.S. had to lower their flag yesterday, after Chicago Fed President, Evans, said that he "expects the central bank to hold its target rate (Fed Funds) at a record low for the next "three or four meetings"... OK... The Fed Reserve meets every 6 weeks... So... Given this news, it means the Fed is at least 4-5 months away from moving rates higher...

Now... I know that the markets are always looking forward... But, this is uncharted waters folks... There's no guarantee that the Fed will look to raise rates even in 4-5 months! So... The looking forward thing, is treading water carefully, watching for those sharks that live on the land!

The Canadian dollar / loonie, has backed off its lofty level of .9770 (cents) it reached yesterday... Things are looking good for the loonie... I mean, Canada doesn't have the sub prime mess to deal with... Their housing boom was never even close to that in the U.S. or the U.K.... And the list goes on... But let's not leave out rising oil prices, and commodities remaining in their bull market... It's all good for the loonie these days...

Speaking of the commodity bull market... I've not gone here for some time, and believe that since I mentioned it we could discuss it today... OK... Well... Long time friend, Jim Rogers, yes that famous Jim Rogers, wrote in his book on commodities, that for the past 400 years, commodity bull markets run between 17-22 years in length of time... Well... Lets see... This commodity bull market began about 9 years ago, right? So, that means we're only about 1/2 way through the "normal" or "historical" bull commodity market...

Now... This is where it would be good to discuss trends... Trends begin for a fundamental reason, and normally do not end, until that fundamental reason has been corrected... However, a trend is not a ONE-WAY street. There can be volatility within a trend, that will fool people or trick people into believing the trend has reversed... Only to find later that they were wrong...

This current weak dollar trend is a good example... You see, we're experiencing dollar strength right now... But, does that mean the weak dollar trend is over? Not in my book! For... The fundamental reason, deficits too high, has not only not corrected, it's gotten worse! So, mark this down, and the same can be said for the commodities, as one of those periods of volatility within a trend...

Then there was this... Did you see the news that the FDIC is encouraging public pension funds to invest / inject capital into failing banks? If you just screamed really loud "WHAT?" then you joined me, because that's exactly what I did when I read that headline in a NY Times article that was sent to me... Why in the world would public pension funds want to inject capital into these failing banks? And even more important than that question, why is the FDIC "encouraging" these public pension funds to do so?

Well... I can come up with a number of reasons for the FDIC to be "encouraging" this be done... But, what I'm sitting here banging on the typewriter keys about this morning is the fact that this uses "real dollars"... Not ones that were printed out of thin air, like the Treasury gives to the Fed to use... They aren't future guarantees either... They are "real dollars" that are about to be thrown at failing that have already had money thrown at them and they still can't make it!

I shake my head in disgust at this attempt to get these bad loans off the Gov't's books and onto the public balance sheet...

None of the bailouts should have ever been done, and we wouldn't be still messing with all of this! It's like telling a lie... Once you tell it, you have to keep adding on to the lie, until it gets so big that it explodes in your face... We started this bailout mess, and it just keeps growing and getting bigger and bigger all the time...