March 14, 2010
Last weeks price action unfolded just as we expected. Money poured into stocks with the focus being on small cap, banks and technology stocks. The fact that these sectors are showing strength while utilities, health care and consumer staples lag is a good sign that investors are once again taking risks in the market.

Because investors and traders are bullish on the stock market again the money flow into the safe havens like Gold and Silver decrease. I believe this is the reason stocks moved up last week while precious metals drifted lower.

Below are three charts (Dollar, Gold and Silver) showing what I think is most likely to happen in the coming week or two.

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US Dollar Index – Daily Chart

The US Dollar has put in a very nice bounce/rally since the low in November 2009. Last month the dollar finally reached a key resistance level of 81. I have been talking about this major resistance level since January as the Dollar would find it difficult to break above this level.

Take a look at the daily chart below. You can see a head & shoulders pattern and a neckline which appears to have broken late Friday afternoon. There is a strong chance we could see 78 reached which is the measured move down. If we get follow through selling this week then I would expect 78 to be touched within 5-10 days.

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GLD & SLV ETF Trading Charts

Precious metals have been moving very well for us recently. From looking at the charts using technical analysis we were able to catch the Feb. 5th low and also the Feb. 25th low on a several ETF’s.

As you can see from the GLD and SLV charts, both metals are not in an uptrend showing bullish chart patterns and trading at support. If we see the US Dollar break down next week then be ready to go long gold, silver and stocks.

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Precious Metals, Stocks and the Dollar Trading Conclusion:

As a technical analyst the above charts are pointing to higher prices in the coming day’s which is exciting for us all. BUT when things are this perfect looking we must be very cautious as the market has way to suck people into setups like this and spit them out a couple days later for a nasty loss.

Understanding how the market moves is crucial for avoiding and/or minimizing losses when trades go against us. That is why I continue to wait for my signature low risk setup before putting any money to work.

My focus is to take the least amount of trades possible each year, only focusing on the best of the best setups. My low risk setups require downside risk to be under 3% for the investment of choice when the broad market shows signs of strength, as well. I use several different types of analysis to confirm if a setup has a high probability of winning and those which do are the trades I take along with my subscribers.

It is very important to wait for the market to confirm a move higher before taking a position with this type of setup. The market could go either way quickly and jumping the gun is not a safe bet.

Get My Precious Metals and Index ETF Trading Alerts: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen