Re: New Rule for ME!!- Another Take on This
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 29, 2010 04:21PM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
Klaus,
You made some great comments on trading.
There is always a debate between fundamentals and technicals.
I still believe that fundamental is the key driver of a stock price. But I do agree it is difficult to access accurate and complete fundamentals unless you have the resources to dig into it or you are a company insider.
Even as a company insider while working for a couple of listed companies at a senior management level, I could not predict precisely how the market will react to the companies' fundamentals over short term.
Thus my trading strategies have been the following in order of sequence:
1. Determine the fundamentals. Peter's choice has been pretty reliable and normally I take it as good research. For other companies, I do my own research but not from conventional sources. I share some of my research some times on the blog.
2. Use technicals to confirm entry and eventually exit if the fundamental changes.
3. If wrong on entry, I use options to control volatility, fear and greed.
I have found that if I allow sufficient time for the trade to work, while controlling the fear and greed in me which in my case is the effective use of appropriate options strategies, I am able to have 4-5 baggers on a number of stocks in my portfoilio. For juniors, there are no options - so I just allocate 20% of my total portfolio and buy a basket of stocks which I believe to be fundamentally sound. I have kept some juniuor stocks for 2-3 years now. 20% of the basket probably lost 90% of the value but more than 50% are multiple baggers. I rebalance and sell the loosers periodically and add in more potential winners. Some of the multi baggers are free trades today because I took profit to cover the complete cost of the stock and let the remaining run. I will exit only when the fundamental change. It may last for another few years. For juniors, most of my information comes from Peter. Overall, it has been very profitable over the last 5 years despite the volatility. The great thing is that there is minimum stress.
For bigger caps, I use options. For those who are interested in one of my key strategies, you may read a new post on my blog:
http://zpring.blogspot.com/2010/03/dynamics-of-managing-collar-trade.html
I have noticed that many people are trading on emotions especially on Peter's blog. When gold falls, they blame Crimemex, curse Nadler, write emails to Peter or even call him. Actually, I find it amusing. These are normally the losers eventually. You need to trade on your own plan, beliefs and take FULL responsibilities for it.