not sure, haven't followed the fundamentals but I was using it has a sort of bellweather to continue with my patience on keeping my powder dry on gold/silver plays......it has support between 12-13 which may hold ...if not it's heading to test 10 over the summer.....which would be a logical 62 percent fib retracefrom the long runup from 4......it would be great to be able to buy it that low...we'll see....50 percent retrace is 12.50.....