So long as 17 million barrels of the world’s crude supply is transiting the Straits of Hormouz each day, the Middle East political situation will be of paramount concern. Close this vital waterway and the global economy would be in chaos within days, if not hours. For several years now, the top geopolitical issue in the region has been Iran’s uranium enrichment program. Tehran steadfastly maintains that the enrichment is for peaceful purposes, but also refuses to give international inspectors the access needed to verify that the country is not developing nuclear weapons. Israel, which could be completely destroyed by a small number of nuclear weapons delivered by missile or terrorists, is determined that Iran shall never develop a nuclear capability and has implied repeatedly that it will go to war to prevent this. Other Middle Eastern states, particularly the Saudis, do not want to see an unstable, nuclear-armed Iran dominating the region.

So far efforts by the US and EU to impose sanctions on Iran through the UN have been thwarted by Russian and China. These nations either believed Tehran’s denials or did not perceive the threat of a nuclear armed Iran as outweighing their desire to obtain oil from Iran, sell to the Iranians, or make trouble for the West.

In recent months, however, these attitudes appear to have shifted. Moscow and Beijing seem to have come to the conclusion that a war involving Iran, which would likely slow or shut down oil shipments from the Middle East, would be far more inimical to their interests than joining in efforts to pressure Tehran on the issue.

In recent weeks, an increasing list of companies, under US and EU pressure, have announced that they will no longer supply the refined oil products which Iran needs to power roughly 50 percent of its economy. It is becoming increasing difficult to transfer money in and out of Iran and the Iranians are finding it impossible to obtain letters of credit to finance trade.

Recently Beijing has been playing both sides of the issue. The Chinese continue to say they support a diplomatic resolution of the conflict and continue to sell gasoline to Tehran, but have apparently agreed to join negotiations on a new package of sanctions on Iran. The key issue for Beijing is just how severe do sanctions on Iran have to be in order to bring about policy changes, while at the same time not do permanent harm to the Sino-Iranian oil trade.

Although the real negotiations are going on in private, judging from the increasingly shrill statements coming from Tehran, such as demands that the US give up its nuclear weapons, the Iranians are clearly beginning to feel the pressure. One of the key questions for the next few years is whether this issue can be resolved peacefully and without a reduction of oil exports from the region.