Don Coxe's Weekly Institutional Investor Call (4/30/10)
posted on
May 02, 2010 02:45PM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
Below are my notes from the Coxe institutional investor call. I can't help but think that maybe the fallout/outcome from the Gulf oil disaster is that the Canadian oilsands stocks like SU and COS might benefit as drilling will be curtailed and we will still need oil. The environmental issues seem more able to be contained with oilsands than otherwise in my humble opinion. susan
Don Coxe 4/30/10
· Prices of BP, RIG & any other offshore oil/drilling companies dropping fast. Cost of insurance will be huge. Gigantic contraction in market caps. Magnified by the fact that Louisiana and Alabama are the worst states in the country as far as lawsuits for corporations.
· Commodity investors have to realize the new risks associated with offshore drilling.
· This will not constrain offshore drilling in the rest of the world but will in US
· Do not recommend that you get enticed by how cheap these stocks are right now
· Next big story is what’s happening in Greece which will have implications around the world. The typical retirement age in Greece is 53. Has ridiculously favorable benefits.
· In the US the average public sector worker has benefit plans approx. 34% higher than average price sector worker
· Bad news for Canada and US the fact that the Euro is on a downward trend as there is now a flight to these two currencies which will drive them up and make it tough on exports
· Spill over is gold – more and more concluding this is the better store of value given the doubtful economic look here in the US
· Move in gold looks like it will break out anew – store of value more important at this stage as inflation still out in the future
· Financial reform – will be a package but there will be protections for certain banks. View that financial sector will be strengthening and therefore double dip recession unlikely which bodes well for commodities. Only thing that would hold commodities back would be double dip recession.
· Recommendations for commodities has not changed BUT what has changed is that list of stocks you pick to buy. (infers it will not be Gulf drilling related stocks)
· Does not think there will be support in US to bail out states who have unbelievable public sector packages like Cal. and Ill. This means there could be confrontations between state workers and states who no longer can afford these generous plans. E.g., people who work in environmental departments in Cal. are retiring with pensions that pay them around $200,000/yr.