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Message: Gold stocks

COMPANY Price SO FD MCap REC gain 52-week
ALEXCO (AXU, T.AXR) C$3.87 53.1M 58.2M C$205.5M C$3.25, 5/06 19.1% C$1.44-C$4.45
HM: Ag, Pb, Zn / BUY ON WEAKNESS—Alexco remains unchanged over last month. Exploration of significant new targets is underway. The main event remains the impending start of mining at the high-grade Bellekeno mine.
ALMADEN (AAU, T.AMM) C$1.14 49.4M 56.4M C$56.3M C$0.78, 3/03 46.2% C$0.64-C$1.42
HM: Au / HOLD—Almaden unchanged. We’re back in the black, but still waiting to see the show get going at theflagship Caballo Blanco project. The potential there is substantial, so we remain patient.
ANDINA (V.ADM, PK.ADMNF) C$1.06 107.5M 129.8M C$114.0M C$3.94, 6/08 -73.1% C$1.05-C$2.18
HM: Au / BUY ON SPEC—Same as last month: Andina has the cheapest gold on the block. It’s very high risk, but at this price, the gains on good news could be huge.
AUEX (T.XAU, PK.AUXVF) C$3.45 40.2M 48.3M C$138.7M C$1.32, 6/05 128.4% C$2.01-C$3.63
HM: Au, Ag / BUY ON WEAKNESS—AuEx has optioned its Trinity silver project, but remains otherwise unchanged: great company, great assets, flagship Long Canyon set to get bigger soon. However, growth priced in, so look for lower entry points.
BEAR CREEK (V.BCM, PK.BCEKF) C$4.91 70.0M 74.0M C$343.7M C$3.97, 4/10 23.7% C$1.22-C$5.29
HM: Ag, Au, Pb, Zn, Cu / BUY ON WEAKNESS—We’ve had a spectacular month since buying BCM, and the company hasn’t even released any results. All the good news we’re hoping for remains ahead, but the price is up, so look for lower entry points.
BRETT (V.BBR, PK.BBRRF) C$3.44 107.5M 120.3M C$369.8M C$1.20, 11/07 110.0% C$0.55-C$3.46
HM: Au / HOLD—Merger in process; unless you don’t want to own shares of Osisko, which has dragged Brett up substantially this month, hold on for continued growth.
CAMINO MINERALS (SYM PENDING) C$0.30 64.3M 62.5M C$66.1 C$0, 4/10 C$0.30 C$0.235-C$0.49
HOLD—New Canplats spinout. The market has given the company a substantial valuation with nothing in the 43-101-compliant bag, so we’re not buyers at this point, but we’ll be watching closely to see how the story develops.
CAPITAL GOLD (T.CGC, OB.CGLD) C$3.83 48.5M 50.3M C$185.8M C$3.16, 10/09 21.2% C$2.40-C$4.52
HM: Au, Ag / BUY ON WEAKNESS —No news from CGC, but with gold having a good quarter, we expect even better financial results, exploration results from Saric, and news of moving NYG’s Orion project towards production. Solid story.
COLOMBIAN MINES CORP. (V.CMJ, CMBPF.PK) C$1.20 22.7M 29.2M C$27.2M C$0.92, 2/10 30.4% C$0.05-C$1.62
BUY ON WEAKNESS —Drill results from flagship Yarumalito project confirm gold-dominant porphyry present, but its size and shape are still unknown. Colombian environmental regs have given the market jitters, but this is looking good.
EXETER (XRA, V.XRC) C$7.75 74.4M 85.9M C$576.6M C$2.74, 6/07 117.0% C$2.83-C$9.32
HM: Au, Ag / BUY ON WEAKNESS —Exeter’s Caspiche just got even larger, up to 41.7Moz AuEq. Everything remains on track for more value added, with strong takeover potential, but the shares are back up again, so watch forbetter entry points.
EXTORRE (T.XG) C$2.87 74.4M 85.4M C$213.5M C$0.00, 3/10 C$2.87 C$1.30-C$3.25
HM: Au, Ag / BUY ON WEAKNESS—Extorre has upgraded a majority of its ounces to the Indicated resource category and brought the tally over a million ounces of AuEq (the eq. being silver). This looks like a highly profitable mine in the making, but it’s not cheap.
FIRST MAJ. (T.FR, PK.FRMSF) C$3.63 92.7M 107.7M C$336.5M C$1.85, 2/05 95.9% C$1.76-C$4.52
HM: Ag, Au, Pb, Zn / BUY ON WEAKNESS—The new plant at flagship La Encantada mine ramping up, even as other operations improve on their own. We’ll know soon if the new plant will deliver as hoped, and boost the E to drive the P as intended.
FORTUNA SILVER MINES (T.FVI, PK.FVITF) C$2.23 110.1M 118.3M C$245.5M C$2.13, 12/09 4.7% C$0.77-C$3.01
HM: Au / BUY ON WEAKNESS—Recent disappointment over conservative economic numbers for the San Jose mine currently under construction have set the shares back. This looks like a buying opportunity to us, but remember that it takes time to build a mine.
FRONTEER (FRG, T.FRG) C$5.85 119.8M 131.6M C$700.8M C$4.96, 4/06 108.3% C$2.69-C$6.20
HM: Au, Cu, U /BUY ON WEAKNESS—Fronteer had a good month, with no story-changing news, probably helped by anticipation of the new Long Canyon resource. The uranium spec is still our near-term focus, but the shares are up, so look for lower entry points.
INTER-CITIC (T.ICI, PK.ICMTF) C$1.29 105.3M 116.9M C$135.8M C$1.80, 11/07 -42.0% C$0.47-C$1.43
HM: Au / BUY ON WEAKNESS—ICI continues delivering good drill results; larger, upgraded resource is clearly on the way. The most interesting development was a major infusion of cash from a large Chinese mining company, could be a possible buyer.
INTL. TOWER HILL (THM, V.ITH) US$7.00 65.7M 71.9M US$459.9M US$1.21, 11/08 275.6% US$2.42-US$8.08
HM: Au / BUY ON WEAKNESS—More good drill results expanding the resources at the flagship Livengood project, but it’s the pending pre-feasibility study that we expect to have the greatest impact on the share price in the near term.
MEDUSA MINING (T.MLL) C$4.45 187.4M 188.7M C$833.9M C$3.40, 3/10 30.9% C$2.75-C$6.25
HM: Au / BUY ON WEAKNESS—Another great month for Medusa, which we pretty much bought at the bottom. The mine is humming along and exploration is underway, as well as a new listing in London. Great company, but not as cheap as before.
NORTHERN FREEGOLD (V.NFR) C$0.33 70.6M 97.5M C$23.3M C$0.335, 2/09 45.6% C$0.25-C$0.75
HM: Au, Ag, Cu, Pb, Zn / HOLD—Story unchanged. The project is better than the market is giving the companycredit for and we’ve already taken profits. We think patience will pay off here.
OCEANAGOLD (T.OGC, ASX.OGC, NZX.OGC) C$2.50 228.0M 233.6M C$570.0M C$1.91, 2/10 30.9% C$0.63-C$2.72
HM: Au,Cu / HOLD— With gold production now fully unhedged our shares should do well, come the next set of financial statements. But there are reports of environmental problems with the company’s mines in NZ, so we’re going to Hold until that’s cleared up.
OSISKO (T.OSK, PK.OSKFF) C$10.10 336.6M 354.3M C$3.4B C$2.07, 12/08 251.4% C$5.30-C$10.24
HM: Au / BUY ON WEAKNESS— Osisko has delivered in spades (again) this month, reaching new all-time highs. We remain very bullish on this substantial emerging producer, but can’t note that the shares usually pull back after a big jump such as we’ve just seen.
PEDIMENT (T.PEZ, PK.PEZFF) C$1.45 47.4M 53.3M C$68.7M C$2.69, 1/08 -46.1% C$0.72-C$1.98
HM: Au / BUY ON WEAKNESS—PEZ unchanged. Exploration and feasibility work underway there and at #1 San Antonio should start delivering results soon, and the project does have serious merit.
PREMIER (T.PG, PK.PIRGF) C$4.30 92.5M 97.7M C$397.8M C$2.48, 7/08 73.2% C$2.01-C$4.52
HM: Au / BUY ON WEAKNESS—PG delivered more great drill results. It’s looking more and more likely that the company will end up with at least two, maybe three substantial gold resources with good economic potential, if it doesn’t get taken over first, but it’s not cheap.
RED BACK MINING (T.RBI) C$25.90 232.4 M 237.4M C$6.0B C$12.05, 9/09 114.9% C$8.15-C$26.47
HM: Au / TAKE PROFITS—Great company, doing everything right. We just got our first official double, so, if you haven’t already, taking profits makes good sense at this time. We are very happy to be able to see what happens next, free of risk.

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