I think he means that time is not on their side. Until they find the holy grail, things could degenerate into a vicious cycle - more drilling expenses requiring more financing & more share dilution at lower and lower prices, resulting in a long downward drift for the stock.

If they find something really good, the stock could triple or quaduple - but from what level?

The situation reminds me of a little biotech stock I owned about 10 years ago - NRI.to. They were awaiting approval for a topical NSAID, and the story was the stock would triple when they got it. Eventually happened, but it took years. By that point the stock had drifted down so much that even with the tripling, it was still down 90%! I'm not saying that will necessarily happen to EVG, but it is a possibility.