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Message: Interesting market reactions to jobs reports

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=101550&obspage=2

Below is a table showing SPX returns after jobs reports, depending on whether the report misses or beats estimates. Far from scaring off investors, it seems that a weak jobs report is looked at as a buying opportunity. In the week following a report below estimates, the SPX has averaged a 2% gain and was positive 67% of the time. The average return is negative when the jobs number beats estimates. The table also shows that the SPX outperforms for about the next month as well (until the next report), averaging a gain of 2.4%.

The table below shows the SPX returns after a jobs report, but this time the returns are broken up by how the market did the day the report came out. Last Friday saw the SPX fall moderately by 0.37%. The table shows that when the S&P has a relatively calm day (plus or minus one percent), you see very good returns in the week (and weeks) ahead. The market has underperformed when the SPX moves big in either direction on jobs-report day.

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