Dollar falls and commodities jump after G20
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Oct 25, 2010 02:16AM
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By Kevin Plumberg
HONG KONG (Reuters) - The dollar fell broadly on Monday after a Group of 20 meeting produced enough agreement despite discordant policies to keep the status quo on the trade of selling the U.S. currency and buying stocks and commodities such as gold.
While the international meeting did not reach a consensus on details such as numerical targets for a country's economic imbalances, the G20 found common ground on the need for more "market oriented" exchange rates and concluded with a shift in power to developing economies in the International Monetary Fund -- enough to avert an all-out currency war, for now.
"It looks like the market has taken the G20 as a green light to continue with the trends up to that point, which have been toward U.S. dollar weakness," said Sue Trinh, senior FX strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong.
Investor focus will probably shift to a Federal Reserve policy meeting on Nov 1-2 that could result in the central bank printing money to buy assets, although estimates of how big the program will be varied widely.
Dealers will parse a speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke at 8:30 a.m. ET for indications whether he is leaning toward aggressive quantitative easing or a moderate approach.
The U.S. dollar index, a gauge of its performance against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, fell 0.3 percent to 76.99 after two straight days of gains.
Significant support for the index lies at 76.00, a move below which would likely accelerate selling of the U.S. currency.
Investors were essentially putting back on bets against the dollar after the G20 meeting reduced some risks of a goods trade backlash from conflicting currency policies.
Short-term investors on the International Monetary Market had a collective bet against the dollar worth $25.8 billion for the week ended October 19, down from about $30 billion two weeks prior.
POST-G20 MARKET LIFTS ASIA FX
After the G20, dealers were keen to also add to their bets on additional strength in emerging Asian currencies, which many policymakers believe have to be allowed to rise as part of a recipe for fixing global economic imbalances.
The dollar fell 0.9 percent against the South Korean won. The won's broad trade-weighted exchange rate is roughly 13 percent below its 10-year average, Bank for International Settlements data showed, partially the result of repeated intervention by the Bank of Korea.
Buying of Asia ex-Japan equities was spread out across sectors, though financials, energy and commodities outperformed slightly. The MSCI index of Asia Pacific stocks outside Japan was up 1.6 percent after ending last week down 1.2 percent.
Shares of Australia's ASX popped 20 percent higher after Singapore Exchange said it wanted to buy Asia's third-largest exchange for $8.3 billion. The deal would create the fifth-largest exchange in the world.
Japan's Nikkei share average was the odd man out, slipping 0.3 percent on cautiousness about how the yen's persistent strength would impact corporate results ahead of the earnings season.
"The G20 meeting agreed to refrain from competitive currency devaluations, and that had sparked expectations that extreme strength in the yen would be avoided," said Yumi Nishimura, deputy general manager at Daiwa Securities Capital Markets in Tokyo.
"But now the market seems to be returning to a bias toward weakness in the dollar, eyeing a possible further easing by the Federal Reserve next month, and that's weighing on stocks."
Japanese exports slowed for a seventh consecutive month in September, stung by yen strength and slowing overseas demand.
Metals were early winners after the G20 meeting. Gold rose 0.7 percent to $1,336.45 an ounce, creeping closer to its all-time high at $1,387.10 an ounce.
Copper traded on the London Metal Exchange jumped 1.5 percent to $8,457.75 a metric ton, closing in on a two-year high hit of $8,492.00 last Tuesday. A rise above the two-year high would clear the way for a try at triangle pattern resistance at $8,640.
Crude for December delivery climbed 1 percent to $82.47 a barrel, extending a 12 percent rise since September, when expectations spread for the Fed to inject copious amounts of cheap money into the financial system