Ole report
posted on
Nov 29, 2010 05:22PM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
from Orimin by Mackie
MINING 24 NOVEMBER 2010
Oromin Explorations Ltd.
OLE-TSX: $1.15 — BUY
TARGET PRICE: $2.00; PROJECTED RETURN: 73.9%
John McClintock 416.860.7613
jmcclintock@mackieresearch.com
Optimizing Studies Likely to Add Leaching to OJVG Flow-Sheet
Share Price $1.15 Market Cap (mm): $140.6
52 Wk. High: $1.49 Basic Sh O/S (mm) 122.3
52 Wk. Low: $0.59 FD shares (mm) 132.5
Target Price $2.00 NAV/sh $2.02
Return 73.9% Div/sh N/A
FY Feb 28 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E
Prod'n (000 Au oz) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Op.Cash flow ($mm) $0.0 ($6.2) ($10.0) ($10.0)
EPS ($0.10) ($0.08) ($0.17) ($0.17)
P/EPS N/A N/A N/A N/A
CFPS ($2.00) ($0.06) ($0.10) ($0.10)
P/CFPS N/A N/A N/A N/A
Target Valuation Parameter
1.0x NAVPS
Financial Metrics (C$)
Courtesy of BigCharts.com
Key Risks
The greatest potential risks associated with an investment in
Oromin are changes in the underlying commodity prices and the
geological risk of variability and reconciliation of actual mined
material to reserve and resource estimates. Additional risks are
Oromin’s ability to raise capital to continue to finance
exploration, for general administration and ultimately
development of the OJVG.
Corporate Profile
Oromin Explorations Ltd. is a junior exploration company listed
on the Toronto Stock Exchange focused on gold exploration in
Western Africa. Currently, Oromin is developing the OJVG
project that contains 2.5 million gold ounces, of which they own
43.5% in the Sabodala district in Eastern Senegal.
EVENT – Update of Ongoing Optimization Studies
OLE announced an update on the ongoing engineering studies by
Ausenco Solutions Canada Inc. (Ausenco) to further optimize the July
2010 feasibility study.
RECOMMENDATION – BUY
Our recommendation remains BUY.
HIGHLIGHT – Heap-Leach Potential and Processing Efficiencies
Heap-leaching potential: OLE retained Ausenco to complete a PEA to
assess the economic potential of heap-leaching lower grade ore that does
not meet the CIL plant 0.74 Au g/t cut-off grade for open-pit ore.
Processing efficiencies: OLE also released the findings of optimization
studies that could add 4.8-8.1 koz Au of incremental production at a
initial capital costs of US$6.2 mm by (1) reorganizing ore handling
techniques to increase the mill’s estimated utilization rate from 88% to
91%, and (2) increasing the size of the leach tanks to increase expected
Au recoveries from 89% to 91%.
IMPACT – Heap-Leaching Potential Could Be Significant
Heap-leaching is significant: The June feasibility study included only
1.42 Moz Au of the current 3.5 Moz Au resource, as a large amount of
open-pit Au resources are not of sufficient economic value to process
through the CIL plant. However, applying heap-leaching processing to
resources that only fall within SKR constrained open-pit shells, we
conservatively add 650 koz Au to our mine plan. We also see the
additional upside in heap-leaching of other bulk-tonnage deposits on the
OJVG project such as Niakafiri Southeast, Niakafiri Southwest, and
Kobokoto, which may add another 400 koz Au in a best-case scenario
once further detailed engineering is completed.
Processing efficiencies are less significant: We have adjusted our model
to reflect Ausenco’s findings, but we see these as minor “tweaks” rather
than material developments. Additionally, it is likely there will be
additional tweaks, as ongoing drilling will expand resources on the
OJVG project.
VALUATION – Increases
Adding the heap-leach potential and the increased processing
efficiencies, we are increasing our target price from C$1.80 to C$2.00,
based on a 1.0x (no change) our C$2.02 NAVPS (was C$1.79).
CATALYSTS – New Resource Estimate and Heap-Leaching PEA
The release of an updated resource estimate to confirm our global
resource estimate of 3.9 Moz, and the publication of the PEA to confirm
our estimates for heap-leaching on the OJVG in Q1/11.
RELEVANT DISCLOSURES APPLICABLE TO: OROMIN EXPLORATIONS LTD.
LIST OF DISCLOSURE TERMS:
1. Within the last 3 years, Mackie Research Capital Corporation has managed or co-managed an offering of securities
by the subject issuer.
2. Within the last 3 years, Mackie Research Capital Corporation has received compensation for investment banking and
related services from the subject issuer.
3. Mackie Research Capital Corporation is a market maker in securities of the subject issuer.
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
Each analyst of Mackie Research Capital Corporation whose name appears in this report hereby certifies that (i) the
recommendations and opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views and (ii)
no part of the research analyst’s compensation was or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific conclusions or
recommendations expressed in this research report.