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Message: 2011 - Fearless Forcast - time to check the crystal ball

But first, a victory lap. 2010 showed impressive gains - S&P up 13%, Nasdaq up 17%, Russell 2000 up 21%, and my favorite hunting ground - the Venture exchange up 50%. So much for David Rosenberg's "sideways" market.

According to my crystal ball, 2011 is shaping up to be somewhat similar to 2010.

January should see the start of a 4-5 week correction lasting into mid or late February. Bears will roar, then the market will start a powerful rally into May-June. Gold stocks should do well, but non-gold rescource stocks should do even better.

Unfortunately, my crystal ball gets a bit cloudy more than 6 months out, but here's what I can see through the fog. When the spring rally ends, it will be time to get out of stocks. Mr. Market should start a major correction which could last into September-October. We might even get one of those classic panic bottoms in October. Then we would be set up for an end of year rally.

The main difference between last year & this year is that this year the spring rally and the summer correction should last longer, and the fall rally would then be much shorter. It's also possible that the high for the year will be made in late spring - the summer correction and fall rally essentially cancelling each other out.

Regardess of whether my crystal ball is right or wrong, I wish everyone a good year in the market!

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